Jan 19th 2012, 11:01 by B.d.H. | BOSTON
THE idea that intelligent life on Earth is a cosmic oddity strikes many as unwarranted terrestrial exceptionalism. There are some 300 billion stars in the Milky Way galaxy besides the sun and, by the latest estimates published earlier this month in Nature, each has, on average, at least one planet orbiting it. (See our Daily chart on the latest planet-habitability index.) Even if only a tiny fraction could, in principle, sustain life, and only a tiny fraction of those actually do, that should still leave an awful lot of neighbours. Some of them would surely have called on man by now.
Why, then, haven't they? The question, first posed explicitly in 1950 by Enrico Fermi, an Italian-American physicist, has elicited a plethora of responses. Perhaps civilisations just do not feel like chatting, or fear that humans could not handle it, or invariably destroy themselves before reaching the technological threshold at which interstellar communications become feasible? Alongside such inherently untestable proposals, however, are some more tractable ones. One is that although civilisations exist, they are few and slow to expand—and so have yet to reach Earth. Another is that galaxy is teeming with intelligent lifeforms, but they are unevenly distributed; Earth just happens to find itself in a bare patch.
The latest attempt to calculate whether such scenarios ring true comes from Thomas Hair and Andrew Hedman, of Florida Gulf Coast University. In a paper presented recently to the meeting of the Amercian Mathematical Society and the Mathematical Association of America, they reckon the odds are rather long. To arrive at their conclusion Dr Hair and Mr Hedman assumed that outer space is dotted with solar systems, about five light years apart. They then asked how quickly a single civilisation armed with the requisite technology would spread its tentacles, depending on the degree of colonising zeal, expressed as the probability that intelligent beings decide to hop from one planet to the next in 1,000 years (500 years for the trip, at a modest one-tenth of the speed of light, and another 500 years to prepare for the next hop).
All these numbers are necessarily moot. If the vast majority of planets is not suitable, for instance, the average distance for a successful expedition might be much more than five light years. And advanced beings might not need five Earth centuries to get up to speed before they redeploy. However, Dr Hair and Mr Hedman can tweak their probabilities to reflect a range of possible conditions. Using what they believe to be conservative assumptions (as low as one chance in four of embarking on a colonising mission in 1,000 years), they calculated that any galactic empire would have spread outwards from its home planet at about 0.25% of the speed of light. The result is that after 50m years it would extend over 130,000 light years, with zealous colonisers moving in a relatively uniform cloud and more reticent ones protruding from a central blob. Since the Milky Way is estimated to be 100,000-120,000 light years across, outposts would be sprinkled throughout the galaxy, even if the home planet were, like Earth, located on the periphery.
Crucially, even in slow-expansion scenario, the protrusions eventually coalesce. After 250,000 years, which the model has so far had the time to simulate, the biggest gaps are no larger than 30 light years across. Dr Hair thinks they should grow no bigger as his virtual colonisation progresses. That is easily small enough for man's first sufficiently powerful radio transmissions (in the early 20th century) to have been detected and for a reply to have reached Earth (which has been actively listening out for such messages since the 1960s). And though 50m years may sound a lot, if intelligent life did evolve more than once, it could easily have done so billions of years before this happened on Earth. All this suggests, Dr Hair and Mr Hedman fear, that humans really do have the Milky Way to themselves. Either that or the neighbours are a particularly timid bunch.
In this blog, our correspondents report on the intersections between science, technology, culture and policy. The blog takes its name from Charles Babbage, a Victorian mathematician and engineer who designed a mechanical computer.
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There are literally millions of pennies, nickels, dimes & quarters just laying around on the ground, in the sand & mud,in playgrounds, on roads. Do you go out & search for them? Have you found any? You don't have time for that kind of nonesense, you say. Much more important things to do......tsk, tsk.
It is known that there is an infinite number of worlds, but that not every one is inhabited. Therefore, there must be a finite number of inhabited worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds, so if every planet in the Universe has a populations of zero then the entire population of the Universe must also be zero, and any people you may actually meet from time to time are merely the products of a deranged imagination.
- Douglas Adams
I think they are with us or among us all along except that we just don't realize it. Or, more likely, they do not wanted us to know that they are here on earth for thousands of years because they can learn about us without having to make a direct contact.
Sometimes i wonder if we human beings realise how young a race we are ?
99 odd percent of our current technology has been developed in the last 200 odd year's.
Patience is a virtue that needs to be learned by today's human's especailly those of us who are impatient, that are so anxious about the way we are so divided. The problems and disputes that came with a long long long history in comparision to a human life at its greatest possible extreme, atm, people living beyond 110 years old? Tbh WOW , Most of our ancestors beyond 50 years ago were lucky to get to 50, 50 years before that it was 45 and so on and thats only the western world.
Imagine the amount you can do now, in comparision to a person living 100 years ago with our transport systems, our internet, our whole existence, our diveristy, our range of paths and lifes to follow, healthy,fat,greedy,moneydriven,ecology driven,mining driven etc etc all of you are most than intelligent to realise the implications.
Of course there will be divides human beings are so diverse and are competing for so much that these diverse idea's will clash until a understanding can be reached and then it will clash over another subject which will be sorted, then changed then sorted then has to be sorted with another population as you see day after day after day.
We as a species have an enormous amount to learn and we are expanding what we need to learn every single second of every single day. But we are learning and learning fast and faster everyday, have no fear of that, like everything it takes it's time.
Have patience, but keep your impatience, it's that impatience that will drive the human race to learn faster and faster, how to interact and how to understand each other and as we are so diverse, of course we will clash and clash in the different ways our different culture's with different levels of modernity and different values and different idea's of how to live are going to bring us too.
It's a learning curve, it always has been and tbh, we are so so young in this learning, but yet so advanced, it is scary to even imagine the possiblities of even 50 years down the road.Imagine 2012 years down the world and the capabilites of our race. We will have hiccup's of course, we always have and it comes with the learning, same as school or a persons own learning or any project or research. Have faith in our inherent loneliness to sort or person to person problems eventually, might not happen fast enough for any here, but it will happen, because the want and need is there.
As for alien species, i would be a firm believer in alien species that they may be in contact already i don't know. But the one security i have on this, is that life whether here or anywhere esle in the galaxy will find a way. Life is made to grow.
Why is it assumed that visitors from space haven’t been here just because they are not publicly acknowledged by the ‘powers that be’? I think we may well be the ‘progeny’ of one or more very-advanced-compared-to-us bands of beings, who watch us as an experiment, to see if we can manage to evolve together without killing ourselves off. The thinking is (amongst us odd-balls) that they will share very advanced energy technology with us, but cannot trust us as long as we turn our technology into weapons of war. Face it, the governments of earth are controlled by the elite behind the multi-national corporations, who like things they way they are, so far as energy sources are concerned. Think back to how JP Morgan squelched the ‘free-energy’ research of Nicolai Tesla, who did manage to get credit for alternative current (supported by Westinghouse), while Morgan supported Edison and his direct current.
I can't get enough of articles like this.
Another thing to consider is that our notion of 'intelligence' is not necessarily the 'modus operandi' for biological evolution.
Our cognitive reasoning skills developed from environmental pressures. The great majority of known species don't require these skills to be 'genetically successful'.
By putting emphasis on the search for 'intelligent' life, we're effectively looking for a species that had similar environmental pressures as us, narrowing our scope when we should be broadening it to encompass any unimaginable possibility.
For those interested in other attempts to quantify the likelihood of contacting other intelligent species, the Drake equation is a good place to start:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
what if they intentionally dont search for us? Also, theory has a flaw that, there way of communication will mirron human pattern of evolution. It is possible for the other spicies to define evolution is very different way than us -ashok
It's The Prime Directive of course, as will be in place here in the 24th Century, as documented in the Star Trek series.
While we are rapidly destroying the ecosystem in the pursuit of money, our societies are breaking apart and we may be reaching a point of no return if nuclear weapons are used in a future conflict. Extraterrestrials would be smart to give earthlings a wide berth and let them self-destruct before attempting to land. That said instead of worrying about galaxies which we will never know how about fixing our only abode: EARTH
To think that other creatures "should" have contacted us by this time is pure anthropomorphic, parochial chauvinism. At best, we may be under observation. It is doubtful, however, that we're more than a database entry.
The time window in which intelligent aliens with sufficient technology to contact us is probably fairly narrow.
With sufficient computing power, intelligent creatures are likely to have merged with their own artificial intelligences within a few centuries of having discovered electricity. At this point, resource problems are probably negligible and poverty, jealousy and all the other characteristics of naturally evolved creatures have probably lost all meaning to those awarenesses that remain, assuming persistent existence itself, is still of interest to them.
Good point, close to what I would suggest myself. Although I do believe that emotions are a very strong factor in any functioning or "real" intelligence, but a mechanistic intelligence may well operate sufficiently without.
Boredom is the worst enemy of every thinking species. Endless existence may either kill off rational thought altogether or be full of interesting and exciting emotions!
Those who hypothesize about intelligent life elsewhere always do so in apparent ignorance of the development of "intelligent" life here. The probability we would evolve was astronomically small and was dependent upon many highly unlikely events happening just so. E.g., this planet "should" be dominated by dinosaurs but is not, only because of a specific asteroid striking just when it did, in the way it did. What were the odds of that?
You may not have read my own comment 7 hours earlier, debating exactly your point and coming to a very different conclusion.
As for the dinosaurs, neither they nor their fairly new competitors (mammals) were exterminated by the asteroid strike that caused the mass extinctions of the times.
Without the asteroid impact, it migth well be true that our planet would have been dominated by landbased dinosaurs right up til the ice ages. But that would not necessarily have stopped mammals from developing, eventually leding to the rise of technological intellegigence.
The fact that almost all the survivors of the dinosours ended up in the air, the only niche that is not contested by mammals, while mammals took over all the other niches on land an in the sea, shows that when the going got tough the mammals were fitter than the dinousaurs.
Thinking that our existence is somehow the result of incredible coincidences (as opposed to credible coincidences) is very anthropocentric. Yes, we might not be here now if the dinosaurs had not been wiped out, then again we might, if maybe a bit later. The point is that with the rise of mammals and their increasing develoment of social cohesion, intelligence similar to ours may well rise repepeatedly in the future as it already has in the last couple of million of years. Given the 50-100 million years that mammals have roamed the earth, another 500 million may well be plausible. I would expect intelligent species to arise repeatedly over this timespan and their only stumbling block against developing their own technological civilisatoin will be the pre-existence of other technological species.
The distinction between incredible and credible "coincidences" is known only to you. Moreover, I don't consider them coincidences at all, merely events that were necessary for our being here. The list of necessary preconditions for our existence is very long. Labeling them as "anthropocentric" is a red herring that contributes nothing. Each necessary precondition has its own probability of occurrence. Their product is the probability of the resulting reality.
In addition, you seem to think that evolution "progresses" to intelligence, and that there is direction to evolution; from lack of social cohesion to more social cohesion, from lack of intelligence to more intelligence. This isn't how it works. There is no direction to evolution.
Furthermore, I have yet to see a proof that "intelligence" even leads to survival more than brute strength leads to survival. There are many thoughtful people who have concluded we are on a short ride to extinction because of our "intelligence." We're following the same course of over-exploitation of resources, overpopulation, and soon-to-crash population levels, that other now-extinct species followed. Whether we in fact even possess lasting social cohesion is something that isn't yet known. The odds do not look good, right now.
Nor is intelligence what matters, although it is necessary. What matters is the development of historically persistent culture of sufficient duration to enable technology like ours to develop. If that has happened more than once in the past several million years, I missed it. And if ours lasts more than a couple more decades, I'll be pleasantly surprised.
Millions of species have each lived on Earth for millions and millions of years, and died away. Now, here we are, one among those long-dead millions of species, combing the galaxy for others like us. Good luck with that!
Hi Cynic, thanks for your reply!
In my mind there is a fairly obvious difference between incredible and credible. Not all coincidences are created equal, some being more likely than others. Your point of view seems to be that we are the result of a series of extremely unlikely coincidences, labeling them "necessary" without any particular evidence. When you stack them up the result is the near impossibility of our existence. That is extreme anthropcentrism, leading to a "God" conclusion - assuming uniqueness and arranging the evidence to match it.
Evolution obviously always "progresses" in its blind search for the best environmental fit. This does not imply that one species is better than another in a qualitative sense, and it may well imply a reduction in traits that we consider "good" such as beauty, intelligence or social cohesion. If a smaller, uglier, dummer species is what environmental circumstances call for, evolution is sure to progress that way.
Looking at the history of life on this planet, there is a clear tendency towards ever increasing utilisation of energy, leading to higher energy use per individual (which I have termed, maybe misleadingly, lack of energy efficiency). That intelligence fits this bill is obvious, particularly in our case, given our energy needs "in the wild" - our massive brains, our extremely long period of childhood, our constant sexual activity. The evolutionary goal (as well as requirements) seem to be increased social cohesion and it has served us very well, making us one of the fittest species on this planet.
That intelligence leads to survival more than brute strength does is obvious when you look at the competition between our species and those who depend on brute strength. The winner has been there for all to see since we started being the biggest factor in the survival of brute-force species all over the planet. Most of them have now disappeared as a result.
One might be excused for thinking that you expect evolution itself to show some intelligence - that it should have realised that it was heading for some sort of destruction. But your claim that our species is somehow able to destroy itself, however thoughtful, is not a claim I have seen made elsewhere. Even at the hight of the cold war with it's overhanging threat of nuclear annihilation, very few people seriosly thought our species would become extinct. Our civilisation, of course, but even if the worst came to worst, our species would survive. Eveloution would take over, leading to an even fitter species - and possibly more intelligent. Or less.
And don't confuse social cohesion on a species level with social cohesion on a sociological or political level.
The discussion here is not the odds of our existence or survival, but the odds of similar, species at other times and other places. My point is that even if we ourselves had not come along, other species would have on this very planet, and others will in the future. It all boils down to having a level of intelligence that eventually leads to technology. In our case, it took 200.000 years or so before technology took off. The circumstances were fairly unusual, with a stable interglacial period leading to agricultural societies as a response to the fall in big game. The next interglacial is maybe some 50.000 years off, with at least some hundreds to come before the current glacial period runs its end. If it hadn't happened in this interglacial, then in one of the ones to come. And if it hadn't been us, then some other similar species. Of course it's a coincidence, but a credible one.
Over the last couple of million of years several species have developed what some anthropologists term technology, a better term might be tool-making. Many of these species had brain capacity similar or bigger to our ancestors, some of them may have had art and language and social cohesion to match ours. We came out on top and pushed the other species into the margins (evidently not without some interbreeding first) and the other species finally disappeared towards the end of the last glacial or even into this current interglacial. Given the blind dicethrowing of evelution it might just as well have been the Neanderthals who marginalised the putative homo sapeins sapeins and started down the path to agriculture and technology.
If we look to the future, other primate species (or even some non-primate mammals) may well develop intelligences similar to or exceeding ours. We are exerting an enormous evolutionary pressure on our planet, and if we manage to "thoughtfully" near-exterminate ourselves, our successors might well win the evolutionary race and come out on top the next time round.
All in all I think it likely that evolution "progresses" towards intelligence and I believe we can both point to the hows and whys of it, and also to factual evidence of similar "progression" in other species.
Can we get beyond the Calvin quotes you cynical people?
What if other lifeforms exist, and they have not contacted because of the disaster we have created of the ecology of this planet? Money, social status, power and greed seem to override the well being of this planet run by humans.
It is highly probable that life on Earth has occurred only once, some 3.7 billion years ago, from a single primordial organism that came into existence with the capabilities of creating copies of itself. We do not know how probable this chance occurrence might be. But we can guess, based on the fact that in those billions of years it seems it did not happen again. And we are talking of a planet with all the right boxes ticked. So chances may be astronomically slim, no matter how many trillion planets are there with similar characteristics to our own. And then it took a sizeable portion of the age of the observable universe (with is only 13.7 bn years old) to produce a species with the right technological prowess to probe the stars. The fact that we are the products of such an extraordinary event creates the illusion that somehow life is a natural and almost inevitable outcome when conditions are right. We may well be alone in the universe, which in itself is an awe-inspiring notion.
We do not know if life occurred only once. In fact there is nothing to succest that this was the case, and may have happened several times over the first 500 million years. As soon as oxygen production started, the only life forms that could survive were those that were protected by a membrane and adapted to oxygen. It is therefore only natural that the first life form to develope oxygen production (actually a byproduct of photo synthesis) should dominate and that fresh occurencies of life would come to a halt.
We may well be sharing our planet with unrelated lifeforms relegated to the shadows of our own. The biosphere is vast and microbial life poorly researched. Some biologists have started this search for "alien" life forms on our planet, remains of lifeforms that came to being at the same time as ours and may still survive on the margins of the biosphere.
That is interesting, and if the conclusion of that search proves successful I will eat my words. For the moment, though, I will stick to current evidence.
Fair enough - but be careful with "evidence" when what we in fact have is "absence of evidence". The only evidence we have is that one lifeform was successful. The lack of evidence of other lifeforms being successful is easily explained away. Hence there is no "evidence".
In response to what your age of the planet was, how can you just guess of how old the earth is. I mean that how can you say that there was no creator to form incredibly complex organisms and to be able to say that all of life formed by near chance is really weird.
I was writing under the assumption that no creator was involved in the start of life and that Evolution is true. Of course if there was a creator, any other possibility can be true. He could have created the universe even 10 minutes ago, and implanted all of our memories in our brains.
We are discovering new species on our own planet let alone talking about knowing whether there is life 13 billion light years from earth. We call what we can see observable Universe based on the resolution of our instruments and light that can reach us. It doesn't mean we know all the Universe. With all the optical, radio-wave and electronic telescopes that we have we can't even resolve an object of 1km in diameter on Pluto surface. We can't tell whether there are trees or animals on any planet orbiting the nearest star to us. All we can say is the planet is too close, too far from the star, too big or too small or seems not to have atmosphere.
While it is a possibility that life may exist only on one place in the entire Universe because the Universe has right to be that way there is also a possibility that life may be in more than one place of the Universe and again the Universe has right to be that way too. About slim chances of life occurrence that's an arbitrary assumption. Life on earth is not supported by atoms and molecules that are unique to the solar system. We have no proof that to be qualified as a living being molecules and atoms supporting life on earth are the only ones that will always be dominant or involved elsewhere. Even the optimum temperature, atmosphere composition, distance from the star, size of the planet are all determined arbitrary based on our own standards. The Universe is so vast and so old that the probability of having living beings somewhere else can't be quickly assumed to be zero based on the fact of what we are able to see or on our wish to be seen. Life is not a natural right that the Universe has reserved to earth.
What we call life means something to us but it means nothing to the entire universe. For the entire Universe, a human, an asteroid, a whale, a comet, a star, an atom... are just parts of its non empty space. They rotate, move, deteriorate, fuse with others, change... based on its physics and chemistry.
A lot of people point correctly to the difference between the likelihood of life existing elsewhere and the likelihood of that life giving rise to technological civilisations.
It is generally believed that life is widespread in the Universe, some go as far as saying that life will emerge inevitably if the conditions are right. Of course we have as yet no way of knowing this for sure but a single discovery of independent lifeforms (e.g. on Titan) would boost this theory considerably.
On the other hand, most people believe the changes of life giving rise to technology to be extremely small. Obviously, some places that may harbour life are not conducive to intelligence. Any life on Titan would have a very hard time developing higher life forms. But there are plenty of other places where the circumstances would be much more favourable.
One way to look at this is to think in terms of energy utilisation (as opposed to energy efficiency). Animals are much better at utilising energy than plants are, but have a much lover energy efficiency. Predators have an even higher level of energy utilisation while their energy efficiency falls even further. Sexual procreation is vastly inefficient energy-wise but a very powerful evolutionary development that utilises energy to further the survival of the species.
A major trigger for the growth in energy utilisation is the presence of oxygen. From the time when the first plants began to produce oxygen to the point where the atmosphere was saturated took several hundres of millions of years. All surface rock had to oxygenize first, the vast oceanic depths had to be saturated but once that was finished animals started to develop, using breathing and eating as a way of utilising much more energy at the cost of energy efficiency.
One might assume that evolution will lead to increases in energy utilisation where possible, that certainly seems to be the case on our planet. The rise of warm-blooded and placental animals are fairly recent examples. Both give a much higher energy utilisation even at the cost of energy efficiency and are necessary for even further developments in energy utilisation, such as larger brains, technology and social cohesion.
Our vast brain founds the basis of our technological development and our civilisation. But developments in brain size came first and are most likely driven by increasing social needs. Many species, most of them closely related to us, have a well-developed social structure and again this may be seen as a better utilisation of energy at the cost of energy efficiency (time spent grooming is energy wasted - unless grooming gives survival benefits that justify the costs).
Our own species seems to have developed with technology in the form of basic tool-making long before we developed our current brain size. Tool making is another example of increased energy utilisation and can be seen with many species. A mixture of tool-making and strong social cohesion, when faced with fluctuating climatic changes during the last 3 million years, led to the rise of several species with increasing brain size and tool making abilities. One of these species eventually came out on top and eradicated the others. That it was us and not one of our close but extinct cousins is probably pure coincidence.
We humans have a unique habitat compared with other species, a habitat defined by technology on the one hand and other humans on the other. It may well be that a given planet only has room for one such species, or maybe not. My point here is that the rise of a technological species, although far from certain, is not as unlikely as many seem to think.
The odds are in favor but lets examine the possible scenarios.
1) we are alone
2) we aren't alone but we are too far away
3) we aren't alone but are the most advanced
4) we aren't alone but no one has the technology to communicate
5) we weren't alone but now are b/c of war, natural disaster
6) We aren't alone but others don't know we are here
7) We aren't alone but others intentionally choose not to contact us
Personally i think two, four or six are the most likely
I'm voting for Number Seven. Looking at Earth in the Year 2012, why would any fastidious non-Earthling want to sully his 28 fingers on the likes of us?
What makes you so sure our science has it right?
Just because we can explain some phenomena with it doesn't mean there isn't a completely different model that does the same thing.
Why should the speed of light be any kind of restraint?
We can't even prove that is right except for minute particles using the model we have.
We haven't mastered gravity. We don't have the only feasible type of energy - fusion. Heck - we're not even working very hard at it!!
I'm pretty sure any advanced civilization is not constrained by distance or the speed of anything.
Be that said, one of the best explanations I read of our being here was in a sc-fi book (I forget the name).
It postulated that in time gone by before Apple and Jobs , an alien spacecraft conducting a survey in this part of the galaxy, whilst departing Earth, flushed its garbage into the sea. Well - you know the rest - first there were swimming creatures, then crawling creatures, then Shopping Malls, etc.
Sure. Like some alien culture would REALLY want to contact a homicidal race of creatures who entertain themselves by either constantly murdering one another OR by watching movies about slaughtering alien INVADERS.
If anything, I think an advanced culture would probably post DETOUR SIGNS on the outer edges of our solar system, advising space travelers to steer clear of our planet !
What if the Aliens are approximately as advanced as we are? Since the whole Universe started at the same point in time, sentient beings may only be able to develop at a uniform speed, because of the kind of early Universal cataclisms that would have wiped out any earlier evolutionary attempts at complex life (viz asteroids and large reptiles on Earth). In which case we are seperated by a currently unbridgable common technological gap.
I agree with you up to a point. Solar systems containing enough heavy materials for planet formation probably only started to appear at around the time of our own. Even if life emerged almost immediately (as it seems to have done on our planet), the production of oxygen and the following oxidising and oxygen saturation is a necessary precursor of multicellular animals. On our planet, this took close to 4 billion years.
Over the last 500 million years we have seen a steady development towards animals with the energy utilisation skills necessary to develop large brains (e.g. placentas, warm blood). These have been in place over the last 50 to 100 million years. Evolution takes time but fluctuating circumstances, such as meteor strikes, super volcanoes or ice ages, speed up evolution considerably.
Such adverse events should not be too close together but if we consider our planet to be fairly typical then the speed of evolution should be fairly typical too. The current ice age that gave rise to our species could have started later or earlier by several millions of years, but other things had to be in place first.
Considering the time scales, one could say that our species could have arisen 10 million years ago or after hundreds of millions of years if at all. On a Universal scale that should probably translate to between 500 million years ago and maybe 3 billion years into the future, leaving a percentile of perhaps 10 - 15% before us and the rest later (We are here only talking of existing planets formed by the same generation of suns as our own. New solar systems are constantly being created in the Universe). If we are talking of 10 potential planets, one could harbour a technological civilisation older than ours. If we are talking of 10.000 planets the picture changes considerably. The argument always in the end boils down to the number of planets with the potential to evolve technological species.
I subscribe to the theory that the proof of the existence of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe is that they haven't bothered to contact us!
I wouldn't even consider ourselves to be valuable as PETS, given our human tendency to BITE THE HAND that feeds us.
One thing many ignore when calculating the probabilities of alien CIVILISATION, is that they confuse civilisation with life. It is very simple just to look at our own planet which has proved itself to be suitable for life. The earth has sustained life, in one way or another, for more than a billion years, but as far as we know (and we know quite well) only one life-form, mankind, has succeeded to reach such a high degree of intelligence to create what we call a civilisation. And mankind has started to develop its modern civilisation only about 10.000 years ago. So, the probability of having civilisation on planet earth, if you were an alien looking for civilisation on earth throughout time, would have been 10.000 to 1 billion, and that is a probability of 0.001%. It seems to me that the likelihood of finding life in other planets is probable but finding civilisation might just be so rare it could not even occur in many galaxies with billions of stars and planets. Unless God is involved in all this and he made other galaxies because he wanted to improve his skills before making his unique and special creation, the mankind.