American politics
The Republican nomination
Has the race just begun?
Jan 31st 2012, 16:05 by R.M. | WASHINGTON, DC
MITT ROMNEY appears to have locked up Florida. The latest polls have him anywhere from five to 20 points up on Newt Gingrich, in part because Mr Romney and his supporters are outspending the former speaker by about a five-to-one margin. If Mr Romney wins, he'll have the clearest path to the nomination. But it seems odd to suggest that Mr Gingrich ought to step aside after this contest, or that he'd be "mad" or "mental" to continue the race much further, as John Heilemann does in an amusing dispatch from the campaign trail.
Pledges to continue the fight unabated in the face of harsh and/or humiliating outcomes are staples of presidential campaigns. And they are also patently meaningless. (Please recall Jon Huntsman's feigned brio on the night of the New Hampshire primary — and his departure from the race a few days later.) But in Gingrich's case, he might be serious, so much has he come to despise Romney and the Republican Establishment that has brought down on him a twenty-ton shithammer in Florida, and so convinced is he of his own Churchillian greatness and world-historical destiny. The same antic, manic, lunatic bloody-mindedness that has made him such a rotten candidate in the Sunshine State may be enough to keep him the race a good long time.
It is difficult to forget how Mr Gingrich's personal animosity towards Bill Clinton led to a series of miscalculations that, in part, resulted in a government shutdown, unpopular impeachment hearings, a poor showing in the 1998 mid-term elections, and, ultimately, his own downfall. Mr Gingrich carries a grudge well, and he appears to loathe Mr Romney nearly as much as Mr Clinton. In interviews and speeches over the past couple of days he excoriated his opponent as a liar, a "tool of Wall Street", and a pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-tax increase liberal who apparently has it out for Catholics and Jews. So yes, one could see Mr Gingrich continuing to fight Mr Romney "all the way to the convention".
But would Mr Gingrich really have to be mad to draw out the race? Should he lose badly in Florida, it would not be much different than Mr Romney's loss in South Carolina. And despite his recent setbacks, Mr Gingrich still leads in the ever-fluctuating national polls. Moreover, he is correct in arguing that "when you add the two conservatives [himself and Rick Santorum] together, we clearly beat Romney." Mr Santorum could soon decide that he has more important matters to attend to.
The delegate math also augurs a prolonged contest. Of the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination, Mr Romney currently has about 16, while Mr Gingrich has about 25. If Mr Romney wins Florida on Tuesday, his total jumps up to around 66. That's less than the total allocated to Mr Gingrich's putative home state, Georgia, which will deliver 76 delegates to the candidates when it holds its primary on Super Tuesday. On that day, some 467 delegates (more than 20% of the total) will be up for grabs in states like Tennessee and Oklahoma, which could be friendly territory for Mr Gingrich.
Mr Gingrich and his campaign team know this—they have laid it all out in a memo (though they seem to have their delegate math wrong, surely a bad sign). Perhaps I am overcome by media bias, but Newt's strategy seems like a sensible approach to a turbulent campaign in which the former speaker has resurrected himself twice already. He'd be mad or mental to drop out after tonight.
(Photo credit: AFP)
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Newt is keeping things interesting. Will he be the John McCain of 2012?
What behind the Mitt Romney coup d'etat in the Republican primaries are the LDS Church and some people of the Wall Street establishment thirsty for power, many of whom in Wall Street once were Obama's bailout beneficiaries.
In contrast to Mitt Romney's continuing unconscious delegate looting, NEWT GINGRICH laid out the American blueprint in specifics for all: THE 21ST CENTURY CONTRACT WITH AMERICA www.newt.org
Unfortunately a sizeable Republican voting bloc whitewashed by Mitt Romney in many closed door caucuses like Nevada wasn't smart enough to recognize the ramifications of a would be Mitt Romney presidency. Mitt Romney is presently enjoying the delegate lead largely because of a significantly ignorant Republican voting bloc.
theweeklyaffairswatnh.blogspot.com
So, this little piggy will go weee, weee, weee, al the way to the Convention...
I wonder whether Newt paid any attention to the classics in his student days... or, even then, he knew that he knew everything...
" Character is fate/destiny". - Heraclitus
Newt should continue as long as he has support. Romney is a fraud and is not capable of beating Obama. Newt will make Mitt's life miserable as he should.
Let the people decide without having just 4 states vote or caucus!!
Good luck,
If as many suspect Newt loses the Florida primary he is still capable of doing the appropriate thing. Withdraw from the Presidential race and commit support to Mitt Romney. This would be a monumental step in restoring his true talent and capability. This decision, if he were to make it would make the baggage he has carried seem much lighter. It could even secure him a role in the President Romney administration. Can he do it? Only if he is truly Presidential caliber and would place his peferences second to those of the country. We'll soon see if he is capable.
Alan G Phillips
I've never doubted that Newt is "mad and mental", but he's staying in until the bitter end, without regard for political sense or nonsense. Glory, and his Destiny (or is it really petty spite?) call.
Besides, there are always more books and speeches lobbying to be sold.
I left out the "and" between "speeches" and "lobbying.
Polysyndeton is so demanding . . .
Especially when one considers that even with a defeat, there are PERSONAL reasons for him to continue the campaign.
The delegate math you indicate may make Gingrich's chances look better than they really are. Once you subtract out the delegates of all the states where he isn't even on the ballot, his path to victory at the convention looks a lot rockier. He would have to hope that all of his supporters, in the states where he isn't even on the ballot, decide to vote for someone (not Romeny) who is -- which mostly means Paul. Would that happen? Doesn't seem all that likely.
I'm not some smart political writer but my instinct would be not to use madness or mentality to predict what Newt Gingrich will and won't do.
Santorum's supporters are evenly divided between Romney and Newt as their second choice. I'd vote for Santorum or Romney. If I was ordered to vote for Newt at gunpoint, I'd still have to think about it.
What happens if Romney can't get enough delegates? Romney must know that he can't pick Newt as a running mate. What's Newt gonna do after Romney gets enough delegates? He if endorses Romney, he might get a speech at the convention which might actually hurt Romney. I hope Romney books Santorum, Paul, Bachmann, Rubio, Christie, Daniels, Jeb, and Haley, and Newt is given the cold shoulder.
Ironically, Newt is the candidate you're most likely to be ordered to vote for at gunpoint.
Jack Welch (now a Reuters columnist) said the GOP needs to be nice to Ron Paul. They need his delegates. He also has a flotilla of young Paulites who do not care about any of Republicans you've just mentioned.
The only person Ron Paul may endorse is Gary Johnson and considering the sharp left turn Johnson's been taking on social issues, that seems unlikely.
The only person Ron Paul may endorse is Ron Paul. He needs to give a speech at the convention to tell blame it on the Fed. And the Constitution.
* ... the convention to blame it on the Fed.
I filled out my Virginia absentee ballot yesterday, and Newt didn't even make it onto the ballot! My choice was either Mitt Romney or Ron Paul. I think that shows how serious Newt and Santorum are
The race is basically over. Gingrich isn't even on the ballot in some states. In order to make up the delegates he'd need Romney to implode.
Romney is clearly the front-runner, but I think he has yet to fully win over the conservative Christian republicans particularly in the evangelical camp. As well, his history on Wall St and Bain Capital hurts his electibility.
I would not yet discount the possibility of a Gingrich/Santorum (Santorum as VP) ticket for the GOP in 2012.
As if the country was not polarized enough as it is.
But Georgia's 76 delegates are divided proportionally (as are Tennessee's and Oklahoma's), while Florida's are winner-take-all. So Gingrich would need massive wins in these states to make up for the delegates that Romney is about to take in Florida.
Does Georgia really have 26 more delegates than Florida?
I predict that Gingrich will move into television punditry whenever this ends for him. His enormous talent as an all-season devil's advocate is much better suited to criticize others from the sidelines than to actually lead, and his political capital for consultancy may be depleted after tilting the establishment windmill as he is. And he does kind of resemble Phil Donohue...
The early primary states trade delegates for their status as early indicators, so yes, despite having about 60% of the population of Florida, Georgia gets more delegates.
Florida got penalized half of their delegates because they defied the RNC rules and scheduled their primary early. It has gotten them a lot of (advertising) money, but cost them some of the influence that they otherwise might have had on who gets nominated.
The best Gingrich could hope for would be a brokered convention. However, one would have to assume that in such a case the RNC would be able to push through the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election. So, even in his best-case scenario, Gingrich would still not win the nomination (or the VP slot, given the bad blood between him and Romney).
But if Gingrich sees Romney as part of the evil Republican Establishment, Gingrich is not likely to be annointed by that same establishment in a brokered convention. He needs a win on delegates, or he's done.
Exactly, and that's not going to happen. He could conceivably have more delegates than Romney, but not more than Romney + Paul.
How close is Santorum to dropping out? Does he still have plenty of money, or is he nearing the end?
"He'd be mad or mental to drop out after tonight."
It would also be a whole lot less entertaining.
Gingrich is such a pandering, narcissistic megalomaniac that he'll say anything to get elected - or sell a book - and it's usually wrong.
And, his self image is so grandiose that he doesn't understand how psychotic it all makes him look.
So, I hope he keeps running. If nothing else, it breaks up the monotony of listening to that wooden cigar store Indian, Romney, drone on, and on, and on, and...