Feb 3rd 2012, 16:29 by J.F. | LAURINBURG, NORTH CAROLINA
IMAGINE you head a municipal utility company. Your coal-fired power plant is aging. Your plant is among the 47% of American plants that have not yet installed the scrubbers needed to bring it into compliance with new EPA regulations. You therefore face a choice. Do you a) install the scrubbers, b) build a new coal-fired power plant, c) build a natural-gas-fired power plant or d) invest in solar or wind power? All four options are expensive, and none is perfect, but the latter two, in most circumstances, are clearly the better options.
A week ago I wrote an article arguing that we are in or nearing the end of the American coal era. The country's coal-fired power plants are aging; natural gas abounds; the installation costs of renewables are falling; and environmental regulations are growing stricter and being properly enforced. Coal may well continue to provide more energy than any other single source for some decades to come, but it will probably never again generate the majority of America's energy, as it did for much of the 19th and all of the 20th centuries. Still, coal will not vanish overnight. Neither will mountaintop-removal mining, which now accounts for much of the coal Appalachia produces. But, as this video shows, some ingenious Kentuckians are figuring out how to restore removed mountaintops.
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The more accountable we make companies for their environmental impact, the better the two may live in harmony. Government must ensure that trees are replanted, water is unpolluted, and the ecosystem continues to live on with as little change as possible.
Mountain top removal has a pretty horrible human and environmental impact. It supplies very few jobs. That area precisely has the highest concentration of bio-diversity in the US. On a more personal note, it's some of the most beautiful landscape the US has to offer. About the only thing it does well is to put a whole lot of money into a few pockets. Someday the coal will be gone and we'll have to look for some other way to feed our insatiable need for more and more energy. But we can't do that yet, 'cause business is business, as everyone knows.
Mountain top removal has a pretty horrible human and environmental impact. It supplies very few jobs. That area precisely has the highest concentration of bio-diversity in the US. On a more personal note, it's some of the most beautiful landscape the US has to offer. About the only thing it does well is to put a whole lot of money into a few pockets. Someday the coal will be gone and we'll have to look for some other way to feed our insatiable need for more and more energy. But we can't do that yet, 'cause business is business, as everyone knows.
As a Kentuckian I find it appropriate that they fly over the mountains and comment on the loss, especially since many on the coasts call this "fly over country." Ironically, the Hazard, Kentucky Wendell H. Ford Airport which was shown in the report is on land formed by mountaintop removal. The fact is most people from Appalachia have no problem with the creation of flat land. A very small minor of activist with New York environmentalism backing make all the noise. You can't build an airport runway, golf course, or more applicable a Wal-Mart on a mountain side. You need flat land which has been provided by reclaimed mines. No other commercially viable option exist for providing livable area.
Finally, the argument that planting trees creates jobs is a joke. What do you produce and who pays for those jobs? Probably the same source of income as almost every other person in Appalachia not tied to the mines, Uncle Sam. Sustainable jobs are a joke. It's sustainable as long as I continue to pay enough taxes to sustain it.
The environmental destruction caused by the Mountain top removal method of coal mining is the perfect example of an "Externality". The coal miners should be required to factor the cost of correcting this externality into the price of the coal (ie. the companies should have to pay for the environmental destruction they are causing).
If this means that the coal being mined is raised in price and it is no longer competitive with other forms of energy generation, then so be it. By not addressing the environmental cost or having the government clean up the site, the tax payer is in effect subsidizing the coal mining companies.
This extrnality is a negative cost, according to somebody who lives there. He claims that flattening mountain tops has value to the inhabitants. If true, then the "real" cost of coal is less than the market cost.
I happen to live in a region where flat mountains are also common. They are called "mesas", and we seemed to be unaware, up to now, why they have an externality cost associated with them.
Perhaps you can tell us why this inhabitant and I are mistaken about the externality cost of flattened mountains.
It is a negative cost - for instance the pollution (heavy metals, other mining detritus) generated by the mining operations and pushed into "fill" in the valleys which buries streams and poisons the water table. Clearly this is not of value to the inhabitants.
Further, certain regions naturally have mesas, but those regions are not the coal bearing Appalachian region. If the flattened regions had any commercial value, they would been built upon and the reforestation efforts would not be necessary. As you can see from the video embedded in the article, that is simply not the case.
A negative cost is a gain, John. You are referring to positive costs. The cost of pollution can be assessed directly through rigorous enforcement of regulations that are in place to control surface and underground water pollution caused by surface mining.
I was never impressed by an argument that differentiated between geographic features on the basis of the mechanism by which they are arrived at. It would be difficult for me to take the assessment of an externality cost based on that differentiation. Any reforestration needed would be a direct cost, of course.
In summary, it would seem that the externality costs you refer to here are imaginary.
Solar power and wind power, in most circumstances, is a better option? Most older coal-fired power plants are located in the upper Midwest/Central states, where the winter peak demand is very close to, or even exceeds, summer peak demand. Winter peak demand typically occurs in the late afternoon, early evening. Think there is going to any solar power?.
Wind power has an equivalent forced outage rate of about 65%. Think there might be a problem maintaining 99.9% grid dependability when a significant portion of generating capacity has a forced outage rate of 65%. Nah! Can't see a problem with that.
Flattening out mountains has a plus - it creates more buildable real estate (once stabilized), something these states are in short supply of away from major river valleys.
And I know a thing or two about the region - I grew up within the edge of Appalachia in Ohio, miles from the West Virgina border. My father worked as a coal miner for a decade when I was a kid. I'm actually writing this from Charleston, West Virginia.
I've realized I'm more insightful than most and I don't think much of the current regime's agenda to kill coal and other energy/economic options.
And another point - as a former botany student myself, I know that nature will reclaim these lands to forests eventually on its own, though of course ecological expertise and action can accelerate this.
How can you argue that these lands are needed for real estate development AND say that nature will reclaim the same land? You are more inconsistent than insightful.
the one tricky thing to re engineer is the mycorrhiza, the fungal interface between the soils and the plant's roots systems. Each plant has a specific species of fungus that allows for normal intake from soils. When you destroy the soil you destroy the fungi. This means that whatever grows there is usually stunted and you get an overgrowth of some species and other species can never come back. It's far from inevitable that these places will ever be fixed.
I also don't buy the argument that blasting mountains out will create real estate, because, what's there? What infrastructure? Also what cretin would build a place which, when the rains come, has a blocked off river and mountains all around that drain right onto the only flat piece of land, which you happen to have all your investments on? And that land is not porous soil, so it holds none of the water. I wouldn't build there.
It could be "one or the other" rather than both at the same time. Try thinking out of the box.
I think the tag line for this article is misleading.
The term "terraforming" refers to the putative process of turning a lifeless and hostline planet such as Mars into a place where Earth based life forms could live.
Mountaintop Removal Mining does the exact opposite of this, turning a haven for biodiversity into some resembling the surface of Mars itself.
First, you assume there is some measurable societal benefit to installing these SO2 scrubbers. The purported health benefits are based EPA's assumption that inhaled fine particulate has equal impact on human health regardless of its morphology and chemical content.
Why did the EPA make this assumption? Because, according to Dr. Levy at the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH), "without it [the equal impacts assumption], we couldn't prove that power plant emission cause health problems."
Between 1990 and 2005, criteria (i.e. emissions that directly impact human health) declined by 30%, but the asthma rate DOUBLED. In 2010 US coal fired power plant SO2 emissions were half of what they had been in 2005 due to Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). Have asthma drug sales plummeted? Are emergency rooms empty? The fact there has been no actual health benefit from these emissions reductions should come as no surprise as the "equal impacts" assumption contradicts decades of research on cigarette smoke.
With its new Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), EPA is once agaiun proceeding with a regulation even though it has no evidence that its previous regulations produced the predicted health benefits.
Why hasn't the HSPH conducted 'before and after' health studies at power plants that installed SO2 scrubbers as a result of CAIR? According to Dr. Levy at the HSPH, "because it [public health benefits] would be too small to measure". (This should come as no surprise unless you believe your family is endangered as much by a day at the beach inhaling salt air as spending a day in a tobaco smoke filled room.
A significant industry now depends on the effort to characterize air pollution and to predict its impact on health. How can Dr. Levy, for example, possible arrive at a conclusion that all of this effort has no benefit? What would he next do for a living? Sell shoes?
The uproar over the canceled ozone reduction level standards had the same background. In this case an extensive, expensive epidemiological study WAS carried out that concluded that the impact of the tighter standard would not have an impact on overall health. There would be a possible effect on deaths of elderly people due to pulmonary disease, but even this had significant uncertainty. Nevertheless, the EPA promoted the imposition of a very expensive program, with negligible impact.
I agree that a whole 'industry' of providing consulting/'scientific studies' to EPA and other environmental organizations has developed, and this industry has a vested interest in continuing to promote additional regulations. The same is true for the EPA rule making bureaucracy; it needs to keep writing more regulations to justify its continued existence.
One of the little tricks EPA does is to stop a consultant's work if it looks like the report isn't going to justify new regulations. The report is kept as a draft report and therefore doesn't have to revealed to the public. Thus, EPA is able to self-sensor the advice it gets so only that advice which matches its agenda sees the light of day.
Several years ago a friend, who was president of a midwestern university, was involved with a discussion with the EPA over funding of programs for their Department of Limnology. The EPA wanted research to be carried out that would provide data on the increasing levels of particulate pollution of Lake Superior, introduced by minimg activity adjacent to the lake. The department innocently reninded them that they could only carry out the research without preconditions as to the outcome. Moreover, there as already considerable data that showed a slight downward trend in contamination of the lake. The EPA team bruskly told them that they were aware of the existing data, and that was the point of the research.
The left the meeting to shop for another university - and a grant was soon announced.
I always love arguments that say "Scientists are bought by all this government money!" Who do you think funds the studies that reach the conclusions favoring industry? Is that money somehow incapable of tainting opinions?
I don't know who funds studies that reach conclusions that favor industry. Do you, guest? The study I referred to that produced the ambiguous results about ozone was funded by the NIH, and carried out by UCalBerk. How did the NIH money taint the results?
I have been associated with both academic and industrial research. The academic researcher is under much greater pressure to produce publishable research that pleases the supporter than the industrial researcher.
Pick asthma as the random variable
say there is no link between the two
therefore the pollution is ok!
Actually so2 has more to do with acid rain than asthma, but whatever.
Also lungs have very specific cellular salt pumps
The EPA did not justify the Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) on the basis of acid rain. EPA's justification is based on the supposed public health dangers, especially for asthmatics, of inhaling fine particulate matter (sulfates and nitrates) that result from SO2 and NOX emissions.
My argument is that it is wrong for the EPA to mislead the public as to the benefits of a particular environmental regulation. Be honest with the people.
Just because I do not believe that the CSAPR can be justified on its supposed health benefits doesn't mean that I oppose all air pollution regulations. On the contrary, environmental regulations are necessary. But just because many environmental regulations are needed and provide a net benefit to society doesn't mean that all environmental regulations provide a net benefit to society.
My biggest complaint is with the EPA 'stacking the deck' and using very questionable assumptions to justify CSAPR.
As an asthmatic I am sick and tired of our government mandating the expenditure of billions and billions more dollars on a 'solution' that has been shown to be ineffective.
"The definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing and expect different results" Albert Einstein
Instead of wasting billions more on a 'solution' that doesn't work, what we should be doing is investing more money in the CDC to figure out the cause(s) for the asthma epidemic. Then spend money on dealing with the cause(s) once we know what they are.
The argument is different and more focused than the straw man you proposed, Nige:
If there is no link between asthma and SO2 pollution, then it is inapproriate to justify reduction in SO2 pollution in terms of a positive effect on asthma. The argument says nothing about whehter pollution is generally "OK".
It's good to hear that progress is being made in restoring the mountains.
David McCullough's 1969 essay "The Lonely War of a Good Angry Man" has some wonderful descriptions of the devastation of the mountains in the 1960s, and early efforts to require restoration. (The essay is reprinted in his collection Brave Companions: Portraits in History.)
I would think a dual gas and coal fired power plant would be best right now.
Wind and solar are still very limited by where they can be effective, and the power grid's inability to accommodate intermittent sources. Patience. We'll figure it out.
bampbs, I agree. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved Dominion Transmission’s Appalachian Gateway Project on June 16, 2011.
Conventional production of natural gas is increasing in the Appalachian region of West Virginia and Pennsylvania. The region is also experiencing a strong emergence of non-conventional production from coal bed methane and Marcellus shale gas. This production growth and new supplies from other regions, like the Rockies, are competing for gas pipeline capacity within the Appalachian region.
If you have the patience you can read more about it at dom dot com forward slash business/gas-transmission/appalachian-gateway/index.jsp
Because someone noticed that the local geography of a very windy place was suited to cheap hydro-storage, here's a major wind project that actually sounds plausible.
http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2012/02/massive-energy-storage-cou...
bampbs, thanks, I appreciate the link. There are also viable wind projects in the (very windy) Great Plains. A Kansas-based multi-state grid co-op uses wind power as part of its mix.
@J.F. Purple, every once and awhile you impress me. I'm inclined to agree with your article's conclusion.
But as Robert Byrd, the late senator from West Virginia, once said, coal-dependent regions “can choose to anticipate change and adapt to it, or resist and be overrun by it.”
You left out a 5th option -- build a nuclear power plant. It has zero greenhouse gas emissions, and generates a whopping amount of electricity.
If we transitioned to nuclear (and hydro, in feasible locations), we could generate enormous amounts of clean energy, and still mine coal and extract natural gas -- the only difference would be that we would be EXPORTERS of those fossil fuels, instead of consumers.
Agreed 100%. But unfortunately it appears to be a non-starter with much of the public, which is a shame.
It is also tremendously expensive.
It should be fairly inexpensive. The Chinese are building five Westinghouse ABW-1000 reactors at a cost of $2/W (continuous) and plan to drive the cost in half as they build more. Maybe we should ask them for help.
Southern Company received approval from the NRC today to operate and construct units 3 and 4 at Vogtle in Georgia. These two reactors will produce 2.2 GW of electricity; Southern lists a "certified" cost of $6.1 billion, which is $2.77/watt. This is roughly equal to the cost of large solar installations in the desert southwest, which many people refer to as giant white elephant projects that are deeply out of the money for rate payers.
"Roughly equal?? If a factor of 10 is roughly equal.
Note, guest, my qualifying adjective "continuous". You are comparing peak power to average power. Yes, at noon on a sunny day, a solar power plant will put out power at costs, measured in $/W comparable to $3/W. But solar plants run at those power levels almost never. They have a "capacity factor" in the desert southwest, an ideal location of 20%. That means they sit there, as useful as a box of rocks, effectively for 19 hours a day. You need to compare the capital cost for an equivalent amount of ENERGY delivered per year. The difference between nuclear energy and solar energy is about a factor of 10. PV solar energy is, by far, the most expensive eneryg we produce.
BTW, missing from that calculation is the additional cost of storing power for periods when solar power is not available. The present storage medium is primarily large piles of coal sitting next to coal-fired plants, underutilized while depending on solar panels. Solar energy supporters love to speculate about hypothetical alternatives (pumped storage, batteries, compressed air, flywheels,... but never seem to get around to determining the additional cost.
So, the actual cost is 10X+
Thanks, RobS. I was referring only to the installed cost of nameplate capacity. As you correctly, if condescendingly, point out, solar power is intermittent, and its effective capacity factor is much lower; even its nameplate cost, however, is triple that of the new Bear Garden combined cycle unit opened by Dominion (VA) Power in the summer of 2011 (a bit more than $1/watt, which obviously does not include the ongoing fuel cost). However, a much more important point is actually that my cost estimate for Vogtle was wrong: the $6.1 billions refers only to the contribution to the capital cost made by Southern Company. The all-in cost of the new units will actually exceed $14 billion, which pushes the all-in cost to nearly $7/watt. Maybe the Chinese can do it for 30% of the cost that the Americans can, but I find that to be a highly suspect cost calculation.
Yes you were referring to the nameplate cost for peak power and comparing it to the nameplate cost for continuous power. Parden the appearnce of being condenscending. It was more irritation with your use of a common but fallacious comparison. Equally irritating is the press release that states "this plant will provide the power needed by 100,000 homes". Yes, at noon on a sunny day, when the occupants are at work.
Gas-fired plants tend to have the lowest capital costs and, up to recently, high fuel costs. The drop in NG costs has changed that. The good news is that the cost of expensive peak power should be coming down - hopefully.
The total cost you quote is closer to what I would have expected for an American-sited nuclear power plant.
The cost of the Chinese plants are the contracted prices, agreed to by Westinghouse. Hopefully for them, they have done the arithmentic correctly. They are well on their way in the construction of the first two plants, and I haven't heard of overruns.
Operating costs of nuclear plants are not all that different, in terms of $/Mwh, from solar plants. In both cases capital costs overwhelm operating costs (fuel, spent fuel storage, repair, eventual shutdown costs for nuclear plants). A nuclear plant in the desert SW, Palo Verde, sells power to power companies for 3 c/kwh, covers operating and capital costs, and makes a decent profit for its owners. Its capacity factor has been running at about 95% for the last several years.
But but you forgot about clean coal. It’s the future don't you know...(at least according to cleancoalusa.org and americaspower.org)
You might recall ads from them popping up some time back, the ones where they plug into a lump of coal with an electrical cord. Never mind they don't have a single large scale plant demonstrating the technology they are promoting. A triumph of media over engineering...
Then again according to Lomborg it makes little sense from an investment standpoint, so hey let’s keep on burning...
I'm not sure how well that all relates to those ingenious Kentuckians but I applaud their reforestation efforts.