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Democracy in America

American politics

Blog posts from May 2012

  • Ideological myopia

    This week in the pundit's fallacy

    by W.W. | IOWA CITY

    HEY, Barack Obama! You want to win re-election, don't you? Of course you do. (It was a rhetorical question, Mr President.) Here's what you need to do: come out in favour of all my favourite policies. Landslide!

    This is never good advice. But pundits cannot seem to stop giving it. Matthew Yglesias long ago dubbed this error the "pundit's fallacy", which he defined as "the belief that what a politician needs to do to improve his or her political standing is do what the pundit wants substantively". Robert Reich, a former secretary of labour (pictured), offers in the San Francisco Chronicle an open letter to the president the whole of which amounts to an audacious, extended example of Mr Yglesias' fallacy.

    Mr Reich presents his progressive wish list as "a clear, bold strategy for boosting the economy" capable of leaving the too-close-for-comfort Mitt Romney in the dust. Yet he offers no evidence whatsoever to the effect that "forcing banks to help distressed homeowners, stopping oil speculation, boosting spending until unemployment drops to 5 percent and fighting to ensure economic gains are widely shared" constitute a winning strategy. I'm fairly confident Mr Obama will adopt few of Mr Reich's recommendations, and little of his rhetoric. Why not? Does Mr Reich know something Mr Obama doesn't? No. Indeed, Mr Obama knows a great deal Mr Reich doesn't. He has a whole horde of public-opinion professionals constantly monitoring the disposition of the American electorate. The difference between Mr Obama's actual strategy and the one tendered by Mr Reich, a putative ally, will stand as a measure of the ineptness of Mr Reich's advice. My question is, why do pundits waste our time with this stuff?

    Does Mr Reich really believe that if only the president came out loud and proud in favour of his recommended proposals, the voting public would rally to his banner? Or maybe he believes that arguing in favour of a strategy that would probably be ruinous were the president to actually adopt it will nevertheless move public-opinion marginally in the direction of his preferences, and that eventually, if he keeps flogging this wish list, voters will begin to come around, and this will one day become a viable platform. Both possibilities seem unlikely to me. The only way I can see Mr Reich actually helping Mr Obama is by making him look moderate in comparison. Is that what he's trying to do? Again, I doubt it. So what's he up to? Surely it's more than mere posturing.

    E.L. Doctorow, a famous novelist, perpetrates in the pages of the New York Times a close cousin to the pundit's fallacy. Mr Doctorow offers a satirical primer for national ruin, for "unexceptionalism", which of course consists entirely of rightward developments in American politics he personally happens to deplore. Mr Doctorow avoids the fallacy of suggesting that a political programme opposed to these developments would be successful. Yet a related fallacy remains. Mr Doctorow's not very clever conceit is that because America has failed to avoid all those things he finds especially wretched, it has been rendered "indistinguishable from the impoverished, traditionally undemocratic, brutal or catatonic countries of the world". That is to say, America's undoing is a direct consequence of the country having failed to successfully oppose what the author opposes. This is perhaps even more ludicrous than Mr Reich's egocentric plan for Mr Obama's triumph. If one spends just a few minutes looking at indices of human development, economic and political liberty, corruption, level of democratisation, and so on, one finds America rates rather highly. Despite America's many egregious failings, it is rather harder to distinguish it from the rich, democratic, gentle or vigorous countries of the world. If America has become a plutocratic, jackbooted, war criminal, the correct conclusion to draw is that America makes plutocracy, jackboots and war crime look surprisingly decent. The problem with all the things Mr Doctorow laments had better not be that they have turned the country into some kind of authoritarian banana republic, because they haven't. Conversely, if America were to do everything Mr Doctorow enthusiastically favours (I bet he reads Mr Reich with pleasure), it probably wouldn't turn out quite as well as he imagines.

    (Photo credit: AFP)

  • Christians, gays and bullying

    A race to take umbrage

    by J.F. | ATLANTA

    A COUPLE of weeks ago Dan Savage, a columnist and activist perhaps best known for making Rick Santorum hate Google and for trying to comfort bullied gay teens, gave the right a gift. At a high-school journalism convention, he attacked Bible-backed anti-gay bigotry. He pointed out that the Bible does indeed condemn homosexuality, but it also endorses slavery. "We can learn to ignore the bullshit in the Bible about gay people," he said, "the same way we learned to ignore the bullshit in the Bible about shellfish, about slavery, about dinner, about farming, about menstruation, about masturbation...We ignore bullshit in the Bible about all sorts of things." During this portion of his speech some students walked out. When he moved on to another topic, he said, "You can tell the Bible guys in the hall to come back now because I'm done beating up the Bible. It's funny to someone who is on the receiving end of beatings justified by the Bible how pansy-assed people react when you push back."

    Mr Savage was making one valid point and one sloppy one. The former: people who justify anti-gay bigotry by brandishing a Bible but ignore other, less convenient biblical prohibitions (the list might also include mixed fabrics and divorce) are hypocrites. The latter: people quick to condemn ought not to be so quick to take offence. The problem with the latter point is that however true it is in the abstract, it was not necessarily true in the particular. No evidence exists that the students who walked out ever condemned or bullied anyone. However poorly Mr Savage may have been treated in high school, it was not by the students in the audience, and they deserved more from a famous and accomplished journalist than derision. Mr Savage acknowledged as much when he apologised, both for the regrettable and infantile slur "pansy-assed" and for using what the great J. Anthony Lukas called "a barnyard epithet" to refer to the Bible. (He could, of course, have opted to make a broader point: that nobody should be so quick to take offence; that journalists will hear a lot of things over the course of a career that they find offensive and even hurtful, and walking out anytime that happens will result in a short career and a narrow mind; that, however ugly his language Mr Savage was at least advancing arguments, and that surely at least one of those offended souls hoping to make a life out of words could have found a few to hurl back at him rather than just flouncing out in a huff.)

    Mr Savage's apology did not stop the outrage machine. Some seem to have taken particular delight in hurling Mr Savage's epithets—bully and basher (of Christians and Christianity, rather than gays)—back at him. The American Thinker harrumphs, "Evidently, bullying is one of those things that is defined by the 'victim'." Well, yes: in fact it is. Bullying is the strong picking on the weak, not the other way around (the other way around is satire). One could make the argument that in the case of Mr Savage's speech, he was the strong one, and the high-school students were "victims", but that would be weak tea indeed. Mr Savage is one person, not a movement, and of course those students whom he gave the vapours were free to leave. Not everyone has such freedom. Gay teens, not Christian teens, kill themselves at higher rates than the general populace. Nobody calls Christianity an abomination. One blogger accused Mr Savage of "Christian-bashing" for pointing out the Bible's position on slavery. A writer for a Focus on the Family site said that "using profanity to deride the Bible...is obviously a form of bullying and name-calling." In fact it is neither: Mr Savage, however intemperate his language, was arguing, not name-calling. That is a crucial distinction, and one that too often eludes the showily devout. If the Bible is in fact the word of God it can survive a few arguments about context and application.

    (Photo credit: AP)

  • Republican extremism

    Reversing polarisation

    by M.S.

    EVERYBODY who liked Norman Ornstein and Thomas Mann's piece in the Washington Post on Sunday has something to quibble about, so I'll get mine out of the way now. Messrs Ornstein and Mann write: "While the Democrats may have moved from their 40-yard line to their 25, the Republicans have gone from their 40 to somewhere behind their goal post." It's not entirely clear what time period the authors are talking about, but their observation doesn't work for any time period I can think of. The Democrats, as far as I can see, have moved from their 40-yard-line to midfield, or their opponents' 45. As recently as the Clinton presidency, Democrats actively pushed for gun control, defence budgets under 3% of GDP, banning oil exploration off America's Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a public option or single-payer solution to universal health insurance, and...well, Clinton-era progressive income-tax rates. Today these positions have all been abandoned. And we're talking about positions held under Bill Clinton, a "third way" leader who himself moved Democratic ideology dramatically to the right, the guy responsible for "ending welfare as we know it". Since then, Democrats have moved much further yet to the right, in the fruitless search for a compromise with a Republican Party that sees compromise itself as fundamentally evil. The obvious example is that the Democrats in 2010 literally passed the universal health-insurance reform that had been proposed by the GOP opposition in the Clinton administration, only to find today's GOP vilifying it as a form of Leninist socialist totalitarianism.

    That said, I thought the article was pretty solid. Robert Kaiser (h/t Kevin Drum) highlights the wonky political-science aspect of the argument: the GOP has made the deadly (though politically effective) move of adopting the norms of Westminster-style parliamentary discipline within an America-style presidential system, where such norms bring the machinery of government to a grinding halt. "Today's Republicans in Congress behave like a parliamentary party in a British-style parliament, a winner-take-all system. But a parliamentary party—'ideologically polarized, internally unified, vehemently oppositional'—doesn't work in a 'separation-of-powers system that makes it extremely difficult for majorities to work their will.'"

    And yet I can't help but feel that there's more going on here than a shift in the GOP's character or strategic doctrine. Ideological or partisan polarisation has been rising for the past decade-plus in democracies all over the world. Westminster systems may in theory be designed to operate smoothly under conditions of polarisation, but in fact over the past two years the canonical Westminster countries—Britain, Canada and Australia—have all found themselves struggling with the extraordinary spectre of hung parliaments. The French presidential elections on Sunday found the extreme left and extreme right sucking away record portions of the vote, with the two major parties left fighting over a shrinking and uncertain centre. America finds it unusual that for over a decade (since the disputed 2000 election), its governing parties have faced a "crisis of legitimacy", with large segments of the opposition refusing to accept their right to govern; but this is the same period in which governments across the world have faced "color revolutions" whose rhetoric and attitudes have also been geared at engendering crises of legitimacy. Something appears to be driving democratic governance towards polarisation, all across the globe. What can be done to reverse the trend?

  • Fiscal policy

    The master of horror on taxes

    by W.W. | IOWA CITY

    STEPHEN KING is the world's bestselling horror novelist. Somewhat to my surprise, he also has strong opinions about tax policy, which he lays out in salty language in the Daily Beast. Mr King, who is extremely rich, wants his tax rate to rise. Why not cut a personal check to the IRS, then? Here's what Mr King has to say about that:

    Cut a check and shut up, they said.

    If you want to pay more, pay more, they said.

    Tired of hearing about it, they said.

    Tough shit for you guys, because I'm not tired of talking about it. I've known rich people, and why not, since I'm one of them? The majority would rather douse their dicks with lighter fluid, strike a match, and dance around singing “Disco Inferno” than pay one more cent in taxes to Uncle Sugar. It's true that some rich folks put at least some of their tax savings into charitable contributions. ... All fine as far as it goes, but it doesn't go far enough.

    What charitable 1 percenters can't do is assume responsibility—America's national responsibilities: the care of its sick and its poor, the education of its young, the repair of its failing infrastructure, the repayment of its staggering war debts. Charity from the rich can't fix global warming or lower the price of gasoline by one single red penny. That kind of salvation does not come from Mark Zuckerberg or Steve Ballmer saying, “OK, I'll write a $2 million bonus check to the IRS.” That annoying responsibility stuff comes from three words that are anathema to the Tea Partiers: United American citizenry.

    But those $2m bonus checks would help, wouldn't they? So why not go ahead and do it? Mr King is frank:

    And what [rich people] do give away is—like the monies my wife and I donate—totally at their own discretion. That's the rich-guy philosophy in a nutshell: don't tell us how to use our money; we'll tell you.

    But gifts to the government may be earmarked for specific purposes. The rich can tell the government how to use their money. Deficit-reduction, infrastructure, education, health care, poor relief: take your pick. So go ahead! Why not?

  • Crusades and witch-hunts

    Where's the outrage?

    by M.S.

    ON MONDAY the top EPA official for the South and south-west resigned because of outrage on the part of some Christians that, two years ago, he had stated he intended to "crucify" oil companies that violate the law. This resignation makes it all the more outrageous that so few have seen fit to express outrage at the outrageous remarks made by Ted Nugent earlier this week to the Associated Press. Mr Nugent said his prosecution in a US district court for illegally transporting a black bear he had killed across state lines was a "witch-hunt" by federal officials angered at his claims that the government is planning to take his guns away.

    Coming just days before the Walpurgisnacht celebrations of April 30th, Mr Nugent's comments are infuriating, ignorant and egregiously offensive to witches everywhere, and their families. Anyone who has endorsed or defended Mr Nugent must publicly distance themselves from him and his comments, which are insensitive to the point of bigotry.

    My views on this subject may be slightly influenced by the fact that I've spent the past couple of days in Germany's Harz Mountains, where witches and Walpurgisnacht are a big deal. Nevertheless, it seems clear that Mr Nugent's comparison of his own prosecution on grounds he admits are legitimate to the genocidal persecutions suffered by witches throughout Europe and America up until the 20th century is unacceptable. Has Mr Nugent been burnt alive on the uncorroborated testimony of a 16-year-old girl? Has he been interrogated with the hot tongs? Has he been broken on the rack? I think not. And I hope that America has not become the sort of country where arguably prominent people can use common figures of speech that members of certain religious denominations might deem offensive, without having all presidential candidates publicly denounce them by name. What kind of America would that be?

    (Photo credit: AFP)

  • Europe and Paul Ryan

    How to make America more like the euro zone

    by M.S.

    YESTERDAY Matthew Yglesias and Kevin Drum got into what looks to me like a largely semantic back-and-forth over whether Europe's inability to respond to the euro crisis can properly be termed a "collective-action problem". Basically, both are making the by now familiar neo-Keynesian point about the European dilemma: continent-wide austerity is driving the EU's economy into depression, but no European actor is willing to buck the trend and advocate deficit spending in order to generate growth in other European countries. As my colleague puts it, critiquing the reaction to the success of French Socialist presidential hopeful Francois Hollande: "The overwhelming criticism is a sort of 'look how inappropriate fiscal expansion would be for the French economy' take. The point is that the economy that matters is that of the euro zone as a whole. And when one steps back and looks at the dynamics in play, it becomes clear that the robotic push for national-level austerity across the euro zone is undermining integration and thereby exacerbating the crisis." Paul Krugman agrees.

    Mr Yglesias goes on to make the point that the reason why America functions as a pretty decent single-currency area, despite radical disparities in wealth and productivity between different regions, is that unlike the EU, it guarantees very large transfer payments from richer to poorer areas to smooth out the differences.

    [M]ost individual European countries have a lot of within-country transfer payments from rich people to poor people but Europe as a whole is marked by a high level of inequality and near-total absence of transfers. If in the United States every bailout of the poor parts of the country by the rich parts was marked by protracted negotiations and stern demands that West Virginia "reform" its underperforming economy we'd be in perpetual crisis. And of course you might ask yourself why the federal government does so much for low-income residents of the United States and so little for the poorer low-income residents of low-income Mexico. And of course the reason is nationalism. Nationalism inspires us to help our fellow American when we can and leaves us relatively cold about the plight of people living in Peru.

    Along these lines, one might hypothesise that one way for the EU to effectuate the kind of transfers that could put the euro zone on sounder footing would be to shift responsibility for social safety-net spending from individual governments to Brussels. This is a solution that is at least as politically and administratively impossible as any other euro-zone rescue programme, but it's a way of thinking about the problem. And conversely, one might ask what sort of moves might America make if it wanted, for some insane reason, to give itself precisely the kind of pro-cyclical government policies that are crippling the euro-zone right now. One way to do so would be to shift responsibility for social safety-net spending from the federal government to the states. Drawing down transfer payments from richer regions of the country to poorer ones, and devolving spending onto governing entities that, like European governments in the aftermath of the new EU fiscal stability pact, are required to balance their budgets, would mimic some of the dynamics we're seeing in Europe right now. It would be a move towards transforming America into more of an American Union, as it were.

    For example, if Medicaid had shifted to a system of federal block grants to states in 2001, the system would have cut federal funds available to most states by more than 35% in 2010. That would have meant those states, mainly those hit hardest by the recession, would have had to come up with the funds themselves by raising taxes or making other cuts, or simply dropped Medicaid coverage for some of their residents. The effect would mimic what has happened with social spending in peripheral European countries like Spain as recession-induced austerity measures have further crippled the weakest economies, and such state-level recessions would have ultimately threatened the American economy in the same way recessions in peripheral euro-zone countries are threatening the European one. I'm sure Paul Ryan doesn't think that by advocating shifting the social safety net to the state level, he's trying to make America more like Europe, but it is what it is.

  • Tax policy

    The VAT of the land

    by W.W. | IOWA CITY

    THE value-added tax is getting some love lately, but will anyone listen? In his new book, "The Benefit and the Burden: Tax Reform—Why We Need It and What It Will Take", Bruce Bartlett, an erstwhile Republican wonk, comes out in favour of a VAT. Josh Barro, a center-right economic policy analyst, writes today in favour of a VAT at Bloomberg View. Just one more curmudgeonly self-hating conservative tax analyst and we have a trend! (If you're not sure how a VAT works, Mr Barro's third paragraph has you covered.) 

    Conservatives have long opposed a VAT on the grounds that it makes raising revenue too easy. Rather than starving the beast, a VAT awards the beast a lifetime pass to the Golden Corral. In a review of "The Benefit and the Burden", David Henderson, a research fellow at the Hoover Institute, tracks the evolution of Mr Bartlett's VATitude:

    For a few years now, he has argued that the United States should adopt a vat, and he continues that argument in his book. Conservatives and libertarians tend to oppose a vat on the grounds that it is a “money machine” for the federal government. Indeed, Bartlett writes that he had opposed the vat on those grounds. So why did he change his mind Because he no longer sees “any hope of controlling entitlement spending before the baby-boom deluge hits.” He writes, “The United States [he means the U.S. government] needs a money machine.”

    Mr Henderson contends that Mr Bartlett fails to justify the spending to be financed by the VAT money machine, and suggests that if it's indeed politically infeasible to rein in spending, it might be better for the government to shaft its creditors by defaulting on its debt rather than bleeding taxpayers with a VAT. Mr Bartlett says default would amount to "grossly immoral theft", but Mr Henderson isn't so sure. "Really?" he says. "It's worse to default on creditors who took a risk than to forcibly take money from taxpayers who have no choice?" This question deserves some serious reflection, but for now I'll just say "Yes" and move on. 

  • Stephen King on taxes

    Pet theory sematary

    by M.S.

    YOU probably can't fund a government on the basis of voluntary donations. I'm not sure it's ever been tried, but it seems like an idea that's unlikely to work. This, I think, is the gist of what Stephen King is saying when he takes on the irritatingly undead meme that rich people who think rich people should pay more taxes ought to just donate more of their own money to the government. My colleague is right that Mr King's rebuttal of this position may not be the most cogent one imaginable; Mr King is a master of enticing people to suspend their disbelief in unlikely theories, not of cutting those theories down. But I don't understand the distinction my colleague draws here:

    First, he seems to think there is a class of problems that belong to the nation as a whole. Then there's the thought that problem-solving efforts financed by gifts from the rich people will prove ineffective, while efforts financed by taxes can work.

    It seems clear to me that part of the reason why certain classes of problems belong to the nation as a whole is precisely that efforts to solve those problems through gifts from rich people will prove ineffective.

    The key to Mr King's point here turns on a phrase i think my colleague glosses over too quickly. Mr King says rich people cannot "assume responsibility" for America's national problems. "Assume responsibility" is different from "write the occasional cheque", no matter how large. Rich people can make donations that may accomplish a short-term goal or two. They cannot guarantee long-term funding for projects or social institutions at the national level. What Steve Ballmer funds today, he may decide not to fund tomorrow. Indeed, this is precisely the problem with the way charitable foundations like the Gates Foundation or the Clinton Foundation work: they tend to lavishly fund the "hot", media-friendly priorities of the moment; they rarely or never endow projects that are not sexy and not counterintuitive, have no ultimate goal or exit strategy, and require many years or decades to take effect. Billionaires can accomplish things, but they cannot assume responsibility for national problems. No voluntary group of billionaires can guarantee benefits to every American retiree 25 years from now, not just because they don't have enough money, but because their commitments are voluntary. This is not a difference of scale; it is a difference of kind. Of course, nothing in this world is certain. But the closest we can come to making guarantees, in our society, is to assign the issue to the body which, with the authority vested in it through democratic elections, can levy taxes on the entirety of the economy and set binding rules to address that problem.

    In the end I think my colleague is as anxious as I am to see the "if-you-want-your-taxes-raised-why-don't-you-send-the-IRS-a-bigger-cheque" meme finally dead and buried. As he says (referencing Mike Konczal), in the end, the question is about "the fairness of the way the tax code distributes the burden of taxation. Only changes to the tax code can fix inequities in the tax code. Donating or not donating to the government has nothing much to do with it." But this is a hard meme to kill! Stephen King seems to be doing a pretty decent job of trying, and the distinction my colleague draws seems to me to only breathe a vapour of false vitality into a tortured undead creature that ought to be allowed to go into the light.

  • Chen Guangcheng

    A pat on our back

    by M.S.

    JUST up the street from me at the moment, on the corner of the Bernauerstrasse, is a massive photo-mural depicting the same street corner on an August day in 1961: a snapshot of Hans Conrad Schumann, an East German soldier, hurdling the barbed wire on top of the still-under-construction Berlin Wall to get to the West, and freedom. In those days, the stakes that led communist regimes to construct obstacles to emigration were clear: they were afraid that combined envy of the West's prosperity and, to a lesser extent, its intellectual and religious freedom would lead huge masses of their citizens to flee abroad. That, obviously, is not an anxiety that affects today's Chinese Communist regime. The fact that China does not fear that any sign of openness will lead large numbers of its citizens to emigrate is one background factor behind Beijing's apparent willingness to reach a face-saving agreement to allow dissident lawyer Chen Guangcheng to apply to "study" in the United States.

    The thing that has surprised me from the beginning of the drama is that it could possibly take place. We still don't know how Mr Chen managed to get from his village to the American embassy, but it seems extraordinary that the Chinese could have allowed a high-profile dissident to escape, could have lost track of him after his escape, or could have allowed him to approach the embassy to ask for asylum. On a couple of occasions during the time I spent in Vietnam, dissidents made surprise, unauthorised contact with American personnel at the embassy or ambassador's residence, but secret police stationed on the street nearby intervened extremely rapidly. In general, police seemed to know beforehand when dissidents were likely to stage such moves. That knowledge turned the relationship between dissidents, the regime, and the US government into a sort of choreographed dance, with limits drawn and signals sent based on mutual interest in avoiding embarrassment over declared positions. So it's not surprising that the result of the Chen Guangcheng drama looks likely to be one that allows America to maintain it has been true to its commitment to defending freedom of conscience, and also allows China to maintain it has not allowed Mr Chen to flee and claim political asylum.

    That's not that different from the way things operated in the old days. The relationship between communist states and America around dissidents has always been a bit of a dance. What's changed is that America's interest in protecting dissidents is no longer a matter of either economic or strategic self-interest. China is not a military foe, or an enemy of capitalism; it's our largest trading partner. And now I'm going to go out on a limb and say something rather gushy and perhaps obnoxiously self-congratulatory: The fact that China is not our enemy makes our continued commitment to defending freedom of conscience for Chinese citizens all the more laudable. We really have nothing to gain from protecting Chen Guangcheng, except that it lets us give ourselves a pat on the back and walk down the street feeling all free and democratic. So let's! Sure, as William Dobson points out, China is probably just as interested in getting rid of Mr Chen as we are in protecting him. And sure, immigrants these days tend to come more because they're tired, poor and hungry than because they're yearning to breathe free, and Chinese citizens these days are less interested in coming to America precisely because the path to middle-class security probably leads through Guangdong rather than Los Angeles. Still, when that rare individual comes along who really considers the freedom thing more important than the wealth thing, we apparently still feel honour-bound to do something for him. And that's a nice thing.

    (Photo credit: AFP)

  • Ideas and economic policy

    Accounting for less-than-perfect policy

    by W.W. | IOWA CITY

    OFTEN it happens that the ideal technocratic solution to an urgent economic problem of national scope is incompatible with the beliefs or incentives of policymakers. A small cadre of economists specialise in understanding how the incentives of politicians and bureaucrats affect economic policy and performance, and they often have enlightening things to say about the gap between ideal and politically feasible policy. Most economists, however, do not.

    The toy worlds of economic models—even the most sophisticated—rarely account for politics, and almost never account for ideology. Consequently, most economists have nothing especially useful to say about the failure of governments to implement the best blackboard solution. It doesn't have to be this way. For decades Douglass North, a Nobel-laureate economic historian, has been harping on the importance of integrating into economic explanations the beliefs or "mental models" that account for the way culturally-embedded individuals mentally represent and order their choices. In his 1993 Nobel lecture, Mr North said:

    Belief structures get transformed into societal and economic structures by institutions—both formal rules and informal norms of behavior. The relationship between mental models and institutions is an intimate one. Mental models are the internal representations that individual cognitive systems create to interpret the environment; institutions are the external (to the mind) mechanisms individuals create to structure and order the environment

    There is no guarantee that the beliefs and institutions that evolve through time will produce economic growth.

    Indeed, as Mr North makes plain, growth is the great exception to the historical rule. It's only a slight exaggeration to say that, to a first approximation, human beliefs and institutions have never produced economic growth. 

    I bring all this up because economists lately seem to be flailing around a great deal in search of an explanation for the failure of Congress and/or the Fed to implement the policies their models prescribe. Watching economists concoct political explanations is by turns painful and amusing in much the same way watching ballet dancers try to sing opera is painful and amusing. Few of them have any relevant training, most of them do it terribly, but a handful seem to have a touch of delightful talent. Judging from his column last week, Paul Krugman should stick to dancing.

  • Contested personhood

    Infant and corporate rights

    by W.W. | IOWA CITY

    THIS George Will column is strange. The main subject is "The People's Rights Amendment" recently put before the house by Jim McGovern, a Democratic congressman from Massachusetts. The proposed amendment to the constitution specifies that constitutional rights apply only to "natural persons" and thus would deny "all corporate entities—for-profit and nonprofit alike" constitutional protections. As Mr Will points out, many collective human enterprises are formally organised as corporations. This newspaper is one. So is the UAW. Under Mr McGovern's amendment, Mr Will writes:

    Congress—and state legislatures and local governments—could regulate to the point of proscription political speech, or any other speech, by the Sierra Club, the National Rifle Association, NARAL Pro-Choice America or any of the other tens of thousands of nonprofit corporate advocacy groups, including political parties and campaign committees.

    Newspapers, magazines, broadcasting entities, online journalism operations—and most religious institutions—are corporate entities. McGovern's amendment would strip them of all constitutional rights. By doing so, the amendment would empower the government to do much more than proscribe speech.

    I agree with Mr Will that the amendment is therefore an extremely bad idea. However, there is no danger whatsoever that Mr McGovern's proposal will make it through even the first step of the amendment process. So what's Mr Will really on about?

    Here's the oddity of the column: it begins with a discussion of a recent academic paper in which "the authors argue that what we call ‘after-birth abortion' (killing a newborn) should be permissible in all the cases where abortion is, including cases where the newborn is not disabled". That is to say, the authors argue it's morally okay to kill newborn babies. According to Mr Will, the argument "helpfully validates the right-to-life contention that the pro-abortion argument, which already defends third-trimester abortions, contains no standard for why the killing should be stopped by arbitrarily assigning moral significance to the moment of birth". And then he writes, "Now comes Rep. Jim McGovern ..."

    Oh no! What does he want to do? Kill babies!? Not quite. As we've seen, Mr McGovern wants to deny that corporations should enjoy the rights of "natural persons". Though Mr Will never returns to the argument in favour of the permissibility of baby-killing, the connection seems clear enough. Just as the philosophers writing in the pages of The Journal of Medical Ethics can find in pro-choice arguments no principle of personhood that would forbid the slaughter of burbling newborns, there is likewise no principle implied by progressives' denial of legal personhood to corporations that would forbid further violence against our divine endowment of rights. So look out, Americans! Progressives want to put your first-amendment rights on the chopping block. And then what? Newborn gumbo?

    I think we'd do well to acknowledge that rights cannot function as effective constraints on individuals or governments unless they are widely acknowledged as legitimate. You may believe, as I do, that rights are conventional rules of a certain kind. Or you may believe that they are an objective part of mind-independent moral reality. It doesn't matter. Even if rights are written by God into the book of nature, it doesn't make a whit of difference unless enough of us happen to agree about which rights of what shape are "out there". Now, I happen to think that newborns ought to enjoy the legal protection afforded "natural persons" whether or not they have crossed some metaphysical finish line and attained natural and/or moral personhood. I also happen to think that if citizens have certain rights, then it is not possible to deny incorporated groups of citizens these rights without violating the rights of their members. But this is by no means obvious. We should talk about it. But Mr Will's column discourages reasoned conversation not only by characterising a proposal to alter the status quo conventions about corporate rights as "proposed vandalism of the Bill of Rights"—that is, as the defilement of our sacred civic text—but also by very shadily associating the proposal with the idea that it's morally okay to slay newly-baked babies. I suggest we resist the sophistical, anti-deliberative drift of Mr Will's column and take this chance not only to continue the debate about the justifiability of corporate personhood but also to commence an open-minded public conversation about the justifiability of our society's baby-slaying conventions.

  • Barack Obama and gay marriage

    Their faithful partner

    by R.M. | WASHINGTON, DC

    THE New York Times ought to read this blog more often. In an editorial published today the paper reacts to the increasingly vocal support for gay marriage in the president's cabinet. It notes that Joe Biden and Arne Duncan recently came out in favour of gay marriage and says, "That made it even harder to figure out what Mr. Obama and his political handlers think is gained by the president's hedging."

    Allow me to help. In an earlier post, my colleague summed up the perils of an endorsement by Mr Obama. "Whatever the moral valence of the issue was before the president speaks, it shifts dramatically along partisan axes as soon as he takes a position," he wrote. In other words, were Mr Obama to embrace gay marriage, he might animate the opposition and retard progress towards greater acceptance. That is one argument, anyway. While Gallup reports more good news in its latest poll on the issue (majority support, again), public support has slipped after spikes in the past.

    The interesting thing about the current debate over Mr Obama's position is that a good number of his supporters (though certainly not all) are comfortable with his hedge. Browsing the popular comments on another Times piece, I was struck by the amount of patience most readers showed with Mr Obama's caginess. They are confident that his motivations are noble, and believe that his support for gay marriage is real if not vocalised. So they are willing to wait for his second term, which they think will be more attainable if he is allowed to stay his hand.

    This implicit trust in Mr Obama's core beliefs is an advantage the president has over Mitt Romney, whose principles are so opaque that he has had to make over-the-top pronouncements on issues that he might rather avoid. Mr Romney cannot hedge because he has already evolved too many times, on too many issues, in ways that are too convenient. Whereas a more reliably conservative candidate could dodge an issue like gay marriage, Mr Romney must not, lest he sow doubt in his conservative base. So the lesson for you young aspiring politicians out there is that having some principles is a good thing because it allows you to be a little less principled when it's politically advantageous.

    (Photo credit: AFP)

  • Same-sex marriage

    Begging the question on marriage equality

    by R.L.G. | NEW YORK

    WHILE we're on the subject of gay marriage, I'm often at a loss for a good example of the logical fallacy traditionally known as "begging the question" (petitio principii), which did not historically mean simply "to raise the question". Our style book explains question-begging briefly here. But I think Maggie Gallagher, an opponent of same-sex marriage, actually just provided an even more perfect, real-world example for Daily Beast readers. 

    To beg the question means to base an argument on the very conclusion you're trying to argue. It's a form of circular reasoning. So what does Ms Gallagher say when asked what tangible harm has come from same-sex marriage in those states that have allowed it? She responds (1) that people who believe in opposite-sex marriage only are being stigmatised, and (2) that marriage threatens to be re-normed as the union of two people of whatever sex, which means that children may not (by definition) have both a mother and a father.

    A more perfect bit of question-begging is hard to devise. To (1), those people are being stigmatised mainly for being wrong, not for being evil, and that's because they can't give any better argument against gay marriage than (2): that gay marriage is not marriage, which they define (without defending) as between a man and a woman.  

    I can certainly think of hypothetical bits of evidence that might make people like me and The Economist'editors re-think support for gay marriage. Ms Gallagher was asked to provide it.  But she offers no children suffering because they have two mothers. No higher divorce rates. No other social ills in the states where gays can marry. This is all that one of the country's most prominent opponents of gay marriage has to offer when given a softball question about the harm of gay marriage: no actual harm at all, except to the entry under "marriage" in Maggie Gallagher's personal lexicon. That's a social ill I can live with.

  • Gay marriage

    North Carolina begs the question too

    by M.S.

    NORTH CAROLINA passed its constitutional amendment to bar gay marriage by a thumping 61-39 majority yesterday. Celebrating the vote, Tami Fitzgerald of Marriage NC, the group that backed the amendment, provided a slightly different variety of question-begging from the ones my colleague addressed yesterday.

    "We are not anti-gay, we are pro-marriage," said Tami Fitzgerald, chairwoman of the group. "And the point—the whole point—is simply that you don't rewrite the nature of God's design for marriage based on the demands of a group of adults."

    Ms Fitzgerald's argument here is of the form "because God says so, that's why". I think this may be the most common form of question-begging in human society, though it is more often used by parents, with the word "I" replacing the word "God". One can't really hope to convince people who are resorting to this justification through argument. One valid rebuttal might be: "But God doesn't exist, and the government should not discriminate against gay people on the basis of some lady's characterisation of the intentions of an imaginary being. You may disagree with me about the existence of God, but given that some people think there is a God, some don't, and some think there is one but she's fine with gay marriage, the government shouldn't be picking sides." Unfortunately, given the religious make-up of the American population, this argument may not be entirely politically effective.

    But it is useful just to briefly inquire where Ms Fitzgerald gets her conviction that the God she believes in has a design for marriage, and that it doesn't include gay men or women marrying each other. The Bible, obviously, doesn't say anything about gay marriage; it wouldn't become a major political issue for a couple of thousand years. What it does talk about, in those famous passages in Leviticus (and the ones in Corinthians, for Ms Fitzgerald and other devotees of the sequel), is homosexuality. It's agin' it. Leviticus says the penalty for a man who lies with a man as one lies with a woman is death. The same, it says a few verses later, goes for someone who has sex with a sheep, or with a woman who's engaged to somebody else. (If she's not engaged, you just have to pay 50 shekels to her family and marry her.) In Corinthians, Paul makes it clear that homosexuals will have no place in the kingdom of heaven (nor will adulterers, people who have sex before they're married, slanderers or thieves). Some interpreters make the hopeful argument that these lines are based on ambiguous translations or that it's anachronistic to apply them to modern understandings of homosexuality, but that seems a bit too optimistic to me. Though Jesus, as far as the Gospels tell us, was silent on the subject, and Matthew has him noting that some people have no interest in the opposite sex because they're just born that way

    The point is, if Ms Fitzgerald is rooting her objections to gay marriage in biblical theology, then her claim that she is "not anti-gay" but "pro-marriage" is clearly wrong. The Bible is "pro-marriage", sure, in the sense that it thinks people who have sex outside of marriage should be killed, or will go to Hell. But this would suggest that gays should be forced to marry each other, if not for the fact that the Bible also thinks people who have gay sex should be killed, or will go to Hell. If this is where Ms Fitzgerald gets her sense of what "God's design" is, then her motivation is entirely anti-gay. Fortunately it's impossible to call yourself "anti-gay" in polite society these days, which is why Ms Fitzgerald uses the "pro-marriage" nonsense. All that means is that gradually, gradually, equality and freedom are winning, and one of these days (and it won't be long) Ms Fitzgerald is going to lose.

    One final question, though: why does the Bible think homosexuality is wrong? Leviticus is simple and clear: it's "an abomination". More question-begging! Paul elaborates a bit more, not on homosexuality itself, but on the more general category of sexual immorality.

    Flee from sexual immorality. All other sins a person commits are outside the body, but whoever sins sexually, sins against their own body. Do you not know that your bodies are temples of the Holy Spirit, who is in you, whom you have received from God? You are not your own; you were bought at a price. Therefore honor God with your bodies.

    Well okay. Your body is a temple of the Holy Spirit; don't sin against it. Fair enough. Except...why is having sex with someone of your own sex a sin against your body? Come to think of it, it seems to me I know a fair number of gay people who treat their bodies pretty reverently.

    We're begging the question again. It's turtles, all the way down.

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