Eastern approaches

Ex-communist Europe

Russia's presidential election

Putin is concentrating

Jan 17th 2012, 13:18 by G.F.

VLADIMIR PUTIN is nothing if not consistent. The Russian prime minister’s latest response to the popular protests that shook his dozen-year rule last month is to contend that only he can steer his country through the shoals of chaos and stagnation. His assertion came in a newspaper article laying out his reasons for seeking another presidential term in March.

The spectre of anarchy is an old trope among Russian rulers seeking to justify their autocracies. No coincidence, then, that Mr Putin, who likes to compare himself to strong-willed 19th-century reformers, titled his manifesto "Russia is Concentrating," a quote from Prince Alexander Gorchakov, the 19th-century foreign minister who described Russia’s renewal following its devastating defeat in the Crimean war.

Mr Putin criticised a “constantly recurring problem in Russian history”: what he called the urge for revolution. “Today people are talking about various ways to renew the political process”, he writes. “But what are we supposed to be negotiating about?”

Mr Putin may be attempting to court the tens of thousands of largely urban, middle-class protesters who took to the streets to denounce the fixing of parliamentary elections in December. But by paying lip service to their demands he has only drawn attention to his central dilemma: crack down and risk bigger demonstrations, or ease up and undermine the carefully cultivated perception of authoritarian dominance.

Yulia Latynina, a political observer, recently pointed out that Mr Putin’s apparent belief that concessions to public opinion display weakness means “you actually do show weakness when you compromise, something the public perceives just like a shark senses the blood of a wounded fish”.

Mr Putin has used his entire political toolbox to try to undermine the opposition. He trotted out President Dmitry Medvedev to issue another call for easing restrictions against political parties. On Monday the Kremlin introduced his most significant promise to parliament: a bill that would revive the direct elections of governors. Mr Putin cancelled these in 2005.

But the vague stipulation that parties nominate candidates “following consultations with the president, who will set the procedures for such consultations” has largely discredited the measure.

Some took the reassignment of Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin's chief ideologist and the brains behind Russia’s “sovereign democracy”, as the deepest nod to the protesters. But Mr Surkov's appointment to the position of first deputy prime minister actually looks like a reward for his hard work during a scheduled reshuffle.

The choice for Mr Surkov's replacement appears more significant: Vyacheslav Volodin, a loyal enforcer from Mr Putin’s United Russia Party expected to be a reliable overseer of the presidential election. His appointment follows the promotion of other close allies of Mr Putin, including Sergei Ivanov, a steely former KGB officer, to be his chief of staff. The regime appears to be closing ranks.

Finally, the masquerading of Mr Putin’s loyal allies as reformers has returned in the person of Alexei Kudrin, who was forced out as finance minister in September. Mr Kudrin joined the protests last month, but showed his cards soon afterwards when he lauded Mr Surkov’s reappointment as a sign that the government was ready to begin serious reform. Yesterday he admitted that his efforts to act as a mediator between the government and opposition had failed.

Although Mr Putin will almost certainly win re-election in March, how much real power he retains will largely depend on his handling of the election. Experts agree that he will want to win in the first round to preserve his aura of invincibility. The elections commission is set to select final candidates tomorrow. Most predict that either Mikhail Prokhorov, an oligarch, or Grigory Yavlinsky, a veteran liberal, will be ditched. Both are seen as Kremlin-approved figures meant to add a sheen of legitimacy to the process.

Moscow’s next big protest takes place on February 4th. If it attracts a larger and more varied group of protestors than the last demonstration, on December 24th, some think Russia’s elites could start to believe their positions would be more secure under another leader.

Still, the uncomfortable fact for advocates of democracy is that even the apparently progressive middle-class Russians who praise life in western countries benefit from Russia's vast corruption, which gives many of them a stake in the system.

So far Mr Putin’s “concessions” have fallen flat. But the real battle will come if an increasingly emboldened opposition continues to undermine the promises of stability that have underpinned his tenure. Its course may depend on how far he is willing to go to stay in power.

Readers' comments

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Yura2009

Things must be going downhill for Putin. Now even the "Pussy Riot", a Moscow feminist punk collective, campaigns against him through its dissident songs and unsanctioned performances.

Their last public unauthorized concert was in late January on Red Square. The "Pussy Riot" performed a new anti-Kremlin song called “Putin Got Scared” employing such devices as colored smoke bombs and a purple feminist flag. The group was arrested and held for five hours at a police station.

All of them were charged with holding an unauthorized rally, otherwise known as 'an anti-Putin offense'.

Yura2009

A banner with the words "Putin, leave" and an image of his face with a black cross over it appeared Wednesday on a billboard above a building adjacent to the Kremlin. It was removed by the security service within hours. With the Moscow outdoor temperature dipping to below minus 30 C, somebody out there must have a frostbite.

Read more: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/index.php#ixzz1lE7DluSf
The Moscow Times

Didomyk in reply to Yura2009

Today an estimated 100,000 Moscow residents braved bitter cold at two major downtown rallies highlighting a power play between political opponents and supporters of Vladimir Putin's race to resume power as Russia'sresident.

The demonstrators demanded fair presidential elections on March 4 calling on the Russians “not to give a single vote” to Putin.

“We are prepared for a long tough struggle,” declared the leading protest organizer and Putin's opponent Boris Nemtsov acknowledging that “One peaceful march will not change the country.”

Among a variety of political groups gathered for the rally were those displaying flags of the liberal Yabloko Party, of the unregistered Party of People's Freedom, of Zhuganov's red communists, as well as anarchists and Russian ultra-nationalists.

Some posters and banners proclaimed "Russia will be free!" and "We do care!" , others were blatantly anti-Putin "Not a single vote for Putin!" and "Putin, go away! Many protesters chanted "Russia without Putin!"

wishfulsoul

Pure manipulation...no one is free in Russia. People are not allowed to express dissatisfaction with their government, journalists are not allowed to report freely, and corruption is daily bread. This is a dictatorship not a democratic state.

Didomyk in reply to wishfulsoul

It certainly is NOT a democratic state. Run by a brigade of former KGB apparatchiks with Putin in charge Russia has become a heaven for crooks and money launderers. Just very recently Russian officials have publicly admitted that over $30 bill in capital has left Russia last year alone to be laundered in foreign banks, - from UK, Switzerland, Austria, Cyprus all the way to the Carribbean islands and beyond.

Now the Russian Government daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta has released its 'money laundering and terrorist financing list' listing organisations and individuals known to be involved in such activities.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110706/165046783.html

You can spend your time studying this list and figuring out who is who or you can take it for granted that most major crooks with ties to the Kremlin have not been listed. Enjoy !

Smilygirl

It is a fact the presidential elections in Russia will increase political heat. There is uncertainty, people today have different opinions whether Putin has a chance to win or does not. There is an interesting article written on this topic. If someone is interested, read here: http://en.kapital-rus.ru/article/278

Didomyk in reply to Smilygirl

Looks like Putin is manipulating concepts of Russian nationalism and/or chauvinism to gain electoral advantage. Yesterday Putin urged his challengers to drop nationalistic slogans, warning of potentially “fatal” consequences of fuelling Russian chauvinism.

He acknowledged that the nationalist problem does exist in Russia, but wants it to be "addressed properly" without defining how .

Blaming opponents for their failure “of proposing solution to these problems" Putin blamed Russian politicians for exploiting these difficulties for the sake of their “selfish political goals”. But Putin said nothing about his own failure to address these nationalistic issues during his terms as president and as prime minister.

While Putin warned that in a multi-ethnic Russia chauvinism "can be fatal and lead to the destruction of the country”, during his term in office Russian nationalist manifestations, including military parades, publications and the activities of "Nashi" and of 'Slavianski Soyuz', as well as numerous public statements of Russian parliamentary leaders were the order of the day.

Putin’s remarks seem to be aimed at the ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the leader of the LDPR party, who will be one of the challengers in the March elections. At the same time Putin is trying to secure support among many non-Russian minorities all the way from the Moslems in the Caucasus to Buriats, Yakutians, Tatars and others in the vast Asian territories.

kuzmich

Didomyk and all posters, I think it’s better not to use the option “in reply to...” since it’s very confusing.

Yura2009

Boris Akunin, a well known Russian writer, commenting on the opposition's demonstrations and on Putin's "second coming", wrote in his blog the following ( translation in part):

... "Between the two giant rallies, the tenth and twenty-fourth day of December, Putin was still a chance to talk with the protesters, but the "national leader" (as they like to call the premiere of his supporters) made another mistake, a fatal: publicly insulted the participants in the movement, accusing them of brainwashing and venality. After that, the main subject of the perturbation was no longer the ruling party, and Putin himself."

"It was during these two weeks, Putin has lost the country."

"He, of course, has not yet realized. He thinks it's just noise from Moscow and the rest of his country's continued support. Moreover, judging by everything, he truly believes that he will win the election."

"In the present circumstances this can happen only with a colossal fraud. There is no doubt that the enormous fraudulent device in charge of Russia in the vote count, does not stop before any fraud. But the victory will be Pyrrhic. Putin will lose the remnants of the actual rating, turned into all-Russian object of hatred and ridicule. This will be a very weak president, who is unlikely to last long."

"Perhaps this sounds paradoxical, but I would prefer that Putin's regime collapsed too quickly. Let's keep the opposition at least another year or two. If Putin leaves right now, not squandered the rest of his popularity, he might come back in a completely democratic way - when the crisis hits the living standards and people will resort to nostalgia for the "fat years". The "second coming" of this political figure will be a disaster for the country."

kuzmich

Putin always says what people want to hear. Today’s popular slogan is “Russia without Putin”. Signed: Vladimir Putin.

Didomyk in reply to kuzmich

kuzmich

Putin has just published in the 'Nezavisimaya Gazeta' a very extensive essay outlining his position on a range of subjets from Russia's historic mission in the world to Russian cultural bonds, to his concept of 'self-determination' vs that of Lenin, to his view on migration in the Eurasian space, and so on and on....

http://www.ng.ru/politics/2012-01-23/1_national.html
"Self-determination of the Russian people is experiencing civilization, Russian cultural core bond"

Given your talents and background we will be waiting for your interpretation just what does Putin mean to do with these rather complex societal problems.

Since I read his views in translation only I am a bit disturbed by the possiblity of Putin preparing the ground to remain in power for at least 50 years in order to resolve all issues confronting Russia. I need your re-assurance that this will not be the case.

mikeinwarsaw

"Russia" is just a Potemkim village facade for "KGBland". If over 60% of State officials are ex KGB/FSB then all and any processes od "democracy" in "Russia" are evidently fraudulent. The country is an oligarchic autocracy, run for the benefit of a relativcely small elite, just as it has been through nearly all its history.

Didomyk in reply to mikeinwarsaw

The "KGBland" continues to practice what the KGB knows best.

The latest news confirming that four Russian embassy staff members, including a 'defence attache' have been expelled from Canada over accusations of espionage in connection with a military intelligence serves as a reminder of the "old days".

Didomyk in reply to Didomyk

Now apparently Putin had second thought about world-wide negative publicity related to his 'diplomats' spying against NATO using Canada's Halifax naval facilities as a base. Putin ordered his minister Lawrov to deny that his 'diplomats' have been expelled claiming that the four 'diplomats' have left Canada after completion of their scheduled tour of duty. Russian 'Echo' station resorted to claiming 'sensational' but 'unsubstantiated' reports, others claimed the case to be a 'non-event'. Clearly less than two months before presidential elections Putin does not want to become the focus of negative international attention.

guest-iisannm

Surely the crux comes in the last part of this article in regard to corruption. What concerns me today is that this is open and in some countries generally accepted.

WAKE UP PEOPLE!

guest-iisannm

Surely the crux comes in the last part of this article in regard to corruption. What concerns me today is that this is open and in some countries generally accepted.

WAKE UP PEOPLE!

Didomyk

For readers interested in publications about Russia authored or co-authored by Michael McFaul:

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=ntt_at_ep_srch?_encoding=UTF8&sort=relevance...

jubus

It is really funny, how much attention gets a country similar, with population small than Pakistan or Bangladesh, with economy based on oil and gas and with one of the highest level of corruption. People from Eastern or Central Europe, really doesn't care about Russia, Putin and all of its mess.
Russia will stay undemocratic for many decades, unless new, young generation, after 2000 will get the reign. People in Russia are simply too degenerated due to many decades of soviet rule and many centturies of tzarist rule.
The best way to live with Russia is the way, which Israel chose with Palestine - building great wall, dividing them from each other. I wish, Poland would built such wall on its border with Królewiec in the next decade. Farther from Russia you are, richer and more secure you are.

lennoxRU in reply to jubus

nice nazism here.

Hope the 600,000 Russians who died liverating Poland in WW2 would read you now.

Not to mention that Russia gave your first constitution, first of its kind in Europe.

What an ungrateful and angry kid.

Konker

As an ex KGB security guy Putins job and mindset is one of coercing compliance with rules. That's what he does. He doesn't do 'good governance'. He does 'my way or no way'. It would be great if Putin was astute enough to realise his weakness. That he needs expert help on how to build effective institutions for Russia's modernisation.

happyfish18

Accordingly, the West have been meddling and instigating protestors to bring down Putin's sovereign democracy so as to replace it with a more dependable oligarchic crony democracy,

Didomyk

"Africa is on the rise, while Russia is on the decline. The democratic idealism that accompanied the fall of communism 20 years ago is gone, but the "imperial pride" recovered in part during the Putin years may not be enough to compensate for the contempt with which the Russian state treats its citizens.
Russia's demonstrators' message is simple: "Too much corruption, disdain and inequality is too much." Russia, like the Arab world, wants modernity."

The above quote is just a concluding paragraph of an essay written by Dominique Moisi, the author of "The Geopolitics of Emotion." © Project Syndicate

Read full text of the author's challenging views here: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/africa-rises-russia-falls/...
The Moscow Times

happyfish18

According to the Western media, his concept of Sovereign democracy is to concentrate the wealth & power into a select band of FSB cronies.

Kornilov

Too much attention is being paid to these petty protests. They represent less than two percent of the country. Practically all the opposition which is played up in the West are in fact its agents. Michael Mcfaul flew into Moscow today as the new ambassador and on the same day all the opposition goes to see him. Its really halarious! What traitors! Enjoy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yf3LjntNX20&context=C356bb14ADOEgsToPDskL...

dmitry888 in reply to Kornilov

>> Practically all the opposition which is played up in the West are in fact its agents.

Did you forgot about Japanese intelligence? They certainly got involved, I've seen them all over in the crowds.

Didomyk in reply to Kornilov

Kornilov wrote: "Michael Mcfaul flew into Moscow today as the new ambassador and on the same day all the opposition goes to see him. Its really halarious! What traitors!"

"Traitors", aren't they ? Why not send them to Siberian Gulags ?

But wait, there are other candidates, some very prominent !

According to Moscow media, the new US Ambassador to Russia
McFaul and the Deputy US Secretary of State Burns yesterday held meetings with senior Russian government officials including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Deputy Foreign Ministers Mikhail Bogdanov and Sergei Ryabkov, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, President Medvedev's foreign policy adviser Sergei Prikhodko, Kremlin chief-of-staff Sergei Ivanov and Prime Minister Putin's foreign policy adviser Yury Ushakov.

Obviously, the U.S. Embassy said nothing about what was discussed with these gentlemen (or, to use your term, "traitors"). One should not exclude the possibility that at least some of these high ranking Russian officials were interested in exploring options for relocating their substantial personal assets into the US and other Western offshore banks in the event they should become 'personna non grata' following the March presidential elections in Russia.

Given the most recent example of Yuri Luzhkov and Madam Baturina who invested some of their millions into Irish hotels, others in London mansions, etc. and knowing how rapidly things can change in Russia, it is only natural for the Russian political elite to carefully explore future alternative residence locations.

Who knows, meeting the new US Ambassador may just pave the way for these Russian politicians who are tired of Moscow and don't like a prospect of life in Novosibirsk but would prefer, let's say, the environment of Las Vegas or the climate of Honolulu ?

Kornilov in reply to Didomyk

You aren't fooling anyone Dido

Its absolutely normal for members of Obama's administration to meet with visiting Russian officials, especially, their first day on the job. This happens regularly.

But what those Russian opposition figures did was the equivalent of the Republican candidates, Romney, Santorum etc. visiting the Russian embassy on the day of arrival of the new ambassador. That would cause a firestorm in the U.S. Those candidates would immediately be labeled traitors and lose all support.
That's why these "opposition" candidates can only muster the support of no more than 1%-2% of the population. What's more, the new U.S. ambassador, Michael Mcfaul, literally wrote the book on how to conduct Orange Revolutions, and more specifically, revolutions in Russia

http://www.amazon.com/Advancing-Democracy-Abroad-Politics-Economics/dp/1...
http://www.holisticpage.com.au/RevolutionInOrange_MichaelMcfaul|9780870032226
http://www.holisticpage.com.au/Russia%27sUnfinishedRevolution:PoliticalChangeFromGorbachevToPutin_MichaelMcfaul|9780801488146

Pure scum

kuzmich in reply to Didomyk

Didomyk,

You wrote a lot on comrade Zyuganov and his program. Good program from communists. Once we went through it in 1917. Still suffer from aftereffects of it. Never trust a communist! For the past twenty years, Russia sticks to a tradition: either bad or worse.

Re Kornilov’s post. Again we went through all the bogeyman stories on traitors during soviet times. The “patriots” who never went to see Michael Mcfaul, have accounts and property in foreign lands. Who bothers!

Here’s a link to their House Russia:

http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/6815/sx1200x6032u.jpg

PS Click on that thermometer to enlarge.

Didomyk in reply to Kornilov

Kornilov wrote: "Its absolutely normal for members of Obama's administration to meet with visiting Russian officials, especially, their first day on the job"

Obviously, you can't even distinguish between Putin's ministers and his senior policy advisors vs the Obama's administration.

Total confusion.

Your hatred leads you to one and only conclusion - 'pure scum'

dmitry888 in reply to Kornilov

>> That's why these "opposition" candidates can only muster the support of no more than 1%-2% of the population.

The very same BS, opposition are the clowns, only capable of gather 100 people in 15 mln big Moscow, they are marginal and deserve no more than laugh,

Guess who is laughing now and where are you fellow comrades, praising Mr Putin, Putin is a man, Putin is Chuck Norris, Where are they, comrade kornilov?

Putin is dancing like a cockroach on a frying pan, his end is close and visible, such a shame and dishonorable end.

mandy jean cole

This diminutive gangster is not worthy of space in the Economist, he deserves no praise or accolade's just condemnation that befits the weasel that he is. MJC

About Eastern approaches

Eastern approaches deals with the economic, political, security and cultural aspects of the eastern half of the European continent. It incorporates the long-running "Europe.view" weekly column. The blog is named after the wartime memoirs of the British soldier Sir Fitzroy Maclean.

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