Economics
Housing markets
Chart of the day
Feb 15th 2012, 16:39 by R.A. | WASHINGTON
CALCULATED RISK provides a chart that nicely captures the strenghtening tailwinds at the back of the American economy:
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The rather large rise in the red line there at the end corresponds to a substantial improvement in the National Association of Home Builders' index of builder confidence. It has doubled since September and, if history is any indication, it presages a surge in construction. That, in turn, should translate into a steady contribution to GDP from residential investment and a rise in construction employment. And that might well keep the American economy on track for a decent-to-great fourth quarter performance.
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The graph tries to contrast two phenomena; Builder's confidence and the number of new homes built.
Am I just being obtuse, but where does the builders' confidence presage number of new homes built? The interval should be 6-12 months.
Is this another of the beliefs that economists cling to, along with their other pseudoscientific Keynesian superstitions?
if history is any indication, it presages a surge in construction.
Any chance that Calculated Risk could add in 2 additional data sets?
1) Existing Mortgages Underwater
2) Number of forclosures (I heard that pipeline isn't empty yet.)
Regards
If the builders are basing their confidence on something more than "here's hoping", they should have already done that.
2) That pipeline has never been and never will be 'empty'.
Just like how initial jobless claims never go below 300,000 even during peak boomtime periods.
hedgefundguy wouldn't know good news if it crawled into bed and snuggled with him.
Just like how initial jobless claims never go below 300,000 even during peak boomtime periods.
You should check the facts before you type.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ICSA?cid=32240
I know the difference between good news and cheerleading.
I know that one can't use 2 data points to make a decent prediction of the future.
I know we've heard this cheerleading before, see the bump in early 2007 and 2010.
Regards
No, you don't know the difference. All good news is 'cheerleading' to you and all bad news is 'real'.
Permabulls and permabears are useless bloviators.
There are good times and bad times, but I'm quite certain you don't ever recognize good times. Things are improving out there, for real, regardless of what you and I type here.
www.rationaloptimist.com
And that link you sent? Yeah, jobless claims don't go below 300,000 (not literally but look at the chart, 300K is the 'floor', if we got back there we'd be in boomtimes again like 1999 and 2006) all the way back to the early 70s
Gee, I wonder if the population was significantly lower back then.
So keep on grumping, hedgefundguy. The world will do what it does regardless of what we all type here.
Number of foreclosed homes climbed in January
2/16/12
(CNN) Foreclosures picked up in January, yet another sign that the nation's huge glut of delinquent homes may soon start making their way onto the market.
The number of homes hit with a notice of default, auction sale, bank repossession or some other foreclosure filing in January rose 3% since December, but it was still significantly lower than it was a year ago, according to RealtyTrac.
"Foreclosure activity increased on a year-over-year basis for the first time in more than 12 months in Florida, Illinois, Indiana and Pennsylvania, following a pattern we saw in late 2011 in states such as California, Arizona and Massachusetts."
The $26 billion foreclosure settlement that the state attorneys general signed with the nation's five largest banks should help move foreclosures more quickly through the pipeline.
---
You can call me names if you want, I don't care.
Go ahead, buy the housing construction index - ITB - I don't care.
Get your friends and family to pile in.
Put your money where your mouth is.
Regards
There is a link on that page where one can get the actual data.
I suggest you take your head out of the sand and look at the actual data for 1999 - mid 2000, then look at the data for early 2006.
Why you say things without checking the facts is beyond me.
But it's YOUR reputation.
Regards