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Economics

Irish borrowers in arrears

The power of the personal

Feb 16th 2012, 20:20 by A.P. | LONDON

THE financial crisis and its aftermath can be told as a tale of enormous, impersonal forces operating on a global scale. But it is also made up of millions of individual stories, of households coping with arrears, unemployment and great private stresses. A 2011 report commissioned by an Irish debt-counselling service called the Money Advice and Budgeting Service, and belatedly brought to my attention (h/t Ireland after NAMA), tells just a few of them.

There is the regret of the tenant who clambered on to the property ladder:

I first applied for a mortgage in 2006. I was a council tenant for over 20 years with the council. I thought by getting on the property ladder I would improve our lifestyle but it’s done the exact opposite. Looking back now, I wouldn’t have got the extension. I wouldn’t have touched it. I would have left it. I would never have moved. I loved where I was. I’m not someone who has to have what the next door neighbours have, I’m not like that.

There is the stress of the borrower in arrears:

I've got these big massive bills that are going to take a long, long time to get rid of, which is a really big weight on the shoulders when I think about it, I [sat] there thinking to myself "how am I going to do it?". It didn’t affect my health in a physical way, more a mental and emotional way. Because I remember thinking that I can’t believe that I’m getting so stressed. Not being able to sleep, being cranky with my husband and son, not having a very good appetite. I don’t sleep. I haven’t slept for 18 months. It's a huge worry, there's no doubt about it. You wouldn’t worry about anything else, but the roof over your head is the one thing that everyone does worry about.

There is the scrimping of the homeowner struggling to stay current with the bills:

We don't go out at all. Never go out. My eldest daughter was only saying it there last week, "when was the last time you were out, mammy?” And I said "it was in 2008".... Two or three pints is a loaf and a carton of milk and that's the way we look at it; you can't do it.

And there is the desperate deception of loved ones:

I asked [husband] to go and see whether we could get help at the time off social welfare and he’d keep on saying "I went down, I went down, I went down," but he never went down... So I went down to the social [community] welfare officer and I went in and I said to him, I’m here to find out what’s keeping [delaying] help, we need help with the mortgage... and he said "I thought you were here to get housing [rent] allowance, your house is being repossessed on Tuesday." That was the first I knew about but [husband] had known a good year before. And I started shaking and I said "I have to leave, I have to leave, I’m sorry I have to leave"... I [wanted] to vomit and I had to leave. So I left and I rang [husband] and he came round and he broke down in front of me. And he told me that he knew it was going to happen and that he got the letters and he ignored them. And that he couldn’t admit to it, at the time, he was depressed.

Just a handful of stories, from a sample of a mere 43 households in a single county in Ireland, but each as powerful in their way as the much bigger narrative.

Readers' comments

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guest-iweejjs

This is the result of advancement and progress in civilised societies. When we complicate our lives ourselves thru modern thnking and lifestyles and given the frailities of individuals the outcomes are frightening and there is no solution to these except backing out into a simplified architecture and will have to endure these hardships for the time being.

fundamentalist

The head of Gallup polling said on TV the other day that most Americans are just one degree away from someone who is unemployed. Many Americans have stories similar to those of the Irish. I know people who had been retired for years who had to go back to work.

The personal destruction that depressions cause should persuade mainstream economists to reconsider their theories of business cycles. The current thought, as expressed by the London School of Economics to the Queen, is that depressions are random events. The central bank and government can do nothing but try to clean up the mess after the storm is over.

But the oldest and soundest theory of depressions, the monetary theory, blames credit expansion by the banks and/or central bank. Modern monetarists blame the public for suddenly and inexplicably (and by implication irrationally) wanting to hold more cash.

The true monetary theory says that credit expansion causes an unsustainable boom. Gorton, Reinhart, Rogoff and others back that theory up with good data.

When will the mainstream stop avoiding the blindingly obvious?

OneAegis in reply to fundamentalist

I'd have to agree with that. Housing absolutely should have been included in the inflation numbers; perhaps if they had aggressively increased rates much earlier we could have avoided this. Lending would have slowed substantially and investors wouldn't have been quite so frantic looking for alternative investments.

AtlantisKing in reply to fundamentalist

I have to agree with you. People want to hold more cash because they are insecure and the opportunity cost of doing so is so low. These are consequences not causes of the current situation.

The causes - as you've pointed out - are the credit expansion and artifically low interest rates which fueled the bubble.

Now, if that is true, what does it say about the current efforts to get us out of this mess?

Hamakko

I hope it's not schadenfreude, but I feel increasingly relieved these days that I was always so cautious, risk-averse, and skeptical over the years. I could have had bigger cars and bigger houses (ie, I could have qualified to take on massive debts for them), but chose not to, even though it made me look something of a poor relation among my peers. Back in 1990 when my wife and I bought our first house, we dismissed our realtor's advice to maximize the advantage of the mortgage interest deduction (MID) by borrowing more and buying bigger; I was convinced that the MID would not last (but it has, and - to my surprise - probably will).

It was interesting to read the exchange below between OneAegis and Doug Pascover. Over-enthusiastic lenders and gullible borrowers have indeed done alot of damage, but I'm inclined to feel the lion's share of the blame is with the borrowers. Bad advice is taken at the risk of the receiver, not the giver.

So I now find myself looking back to the sage advice - or is it a cliché - impressed upon me by my Irish grandparents, which dazzles more and more from behind all I've heard since; "Neither a borrower nor a lender be."

They were no economists, God bless them both...
But the more I think of their advice, the wiser it gets.

OneAegis in reply to Hamakko

Well said. I guess apportioning blame between parties appropriately is as old as time; was it Adam, Eve or the serpent who bears responsibility for the fall? (Or God for a logical fault in the source code?)

Hamakko in reply to OneAegis

OneA: Also well-said! Funny you should have brought up that Garden of Eden analogy though. As the token heretic in an office-full of (friendly) Evangelicals, I was debating with my colleagues recently the whole concept of temptation, trying to explain to them why I didn't believe in it. Put simply, Eve didn't hold a gun to Adam's head. Fundamentally, Adam made his own choice (as did Eve before him, NOT the serpent), so in my scheme of things, each should be held equally accountable for the consequences of that choice. Yet it seems Eve is more vilified, and her modern sisters more suspect.
Oh well; I guess there was a reason why the Bible was written by men...

OneAegis in reply to Hamakko

Cheers, fellow heretic! I used that example as it would probably be the best universally understood. And I agree with you fully; the whole blame Eve thing seems to have been just a way to justify male dominance.

I found it funny we both assigned (literally) the lion's share to the opposite parties. I think what tips the scales for me is looking at the party that profited hugely off the issue, while the other is dealt mainly misery.

Hamakko in reply to OneAegis

OneA, that's a very worthy perspective - I mean the profit thing you mention. I hadn't even considered that. So good for you; you have brought me a little way back to the center!
Have a blame-free weekend!

fundamentalist in reply to Hamakko

Interesting points. The Apostle Paul in one of his letters wrote that the serpent deceived Eve but not Adam, implying that Adam went along with Eve knowing full well what he was doing and the consequences.

And think about it this way: without the Bible story of Adam and Eve, we are left with few good choices for the problem of evil. The choices are 1) God is evil; 2) God is good but too small to do anything about evil; 3) good and evil don't really exist.

Hamakko in reply to fundamentalist

Fundamentalist, well, as you can probably guess, we disagree on your latter point. While I appreciate your perspective, I wonder who are the 'we' to whom you refer. Hindus, Buddhists, Daoists, Shintoists, Muslims, atheists and other non-Christians I have met on my travels all appeared to me to distinguish perfectly well between good and evil, but none of them based that distinction on anything from the Bible.
Still, everyone needs some standard; rest assured I do not begrudge you yours. It just doesn't work for me.
Best Regards!

AtlantisKing in reply to Hamakko

I have exactly the same feeling - and do not worry; it's not schadenfreude. It is that sense of amazement for having made the prudent decision when you could have easily gone another way all those years ago.

fundamentalist in reply to Hamakko

I wasn't referring to the ability of people to distinguish between good and evil. Everyone has that, even atheists. I was referring to their ability to give a reason for their choices; to defend those choices with reason.
There are very few people who don't recoil at murder. Yet there are people who murder their infant girls and consider it a good thing. What reason can you give for that being evil, other than that you find it personally disgusting.
And the other question is why do we even have categories called "good" and "evil"? We don't call a lion a murderer when it kills an antelope. We don't call people who kill a cow to make hamburgers a murderer. So why do we call someone a murderer who kills people?
Of course, evolutionists have said that we evolved notions of morality as defense mechanisms. But that only means that they were appropriate for a time in the distant past and may not be appropriate today.
Others will say that morals are nothing but social contracts to enable groups to live together. Fine, but that means that they aren't universal, so if I don't agree with your morals you have no reasonable argument to support yours.
In many societies murder or theft against outsiders is considered virtuous and is only wrong if committed against insiders. How are they wrong?

chernyshevsky

Boohoo. I'm sure these people live far more comfortable lives than the unemployed Poles on the island whom the Irish media is now actively demonizing.

could you link please ? I thought we were doing pretty well. The poles were the worldest greatest immigrants. They came, they worked, they mostly went home. From an economic perspective they were a massive boon for Ireland. They were basically irish anyway, hard working, close knit a bit of drinking culture and sure more catholic than us. They even had a pope. TBH i think your being a bit unfair but I could be wrong. Anyway hooray for the Poles.

walrusandthecarpenter

Here in Ireland bankruptcy takes 12 years. That may change soon. As much as those stories are tough its this bankruptcy laws which make it so tough. Nobody likes to lose everything but if you do you rent, you start again. You can't do that if bankruptcy is not an option and at 12 years its not really an option for most people.

jomiku

And this is why the financial institutions need to be regulated. Individual stories add up to a very large aggregate of woe.

OneAegis in reply to jomiku

While I agree, at this point it seems that the actions being taken are worse than inaction. Take a look at the Economist's article on Dodd Frank that just came out today. The fixed costs of running a financial institution are becoming so high that only the biggest are going to be able to stay in business, which is really the opposite of what we should want.

hedgefundguy in reply to OneAegis

Give it time.

There will be an article somewhere, saying that the best way to reduce those high costs would be to become smaller.

Do you want a safe financial system or one that is guaranteed to make a profit (even at the taxpayers expense)?

Regards

OneAegis in reply to fundamentalist

I used to work for the mega banks, but for the past few years have worked for a mid-range credit union. Definitely a nice change of pace and perspective. The smaller (and "smaller" keeps getting bigger year after year) credit unions now are faced with the stark choice of either dissolution or being acquired.

fundamentalist in reply to OneAegis

That's such a shame! When TARP bailed out the big banks I read an interview with the president of a regional bank. He said that he had competed very hard with the national banks for years and now that the big banks had stumbled and he had a chance to win some of their customers the government steps in and rescues them.

Have big banks captured the government or what?!!!

Hamakko in reply to fundamentalist

I shudder to think of the liabilities of FDIC if bigger banks went under. I believe it's only required to have a little over 1% of its total liability (ie to covered depositors) on hand in the deposit insurance fund (and I believe it currently has less...).
To your point, though, I agree that the government should not have rescued them, and certainly not by TARP funds. As I understand it, FDIC can step in and essentially take-over a tottering bank, and auction its assets off (to competitors). But that might still leave a huge liability to depositors of the failed bank.
And to think that when I first came to the US in the late 80s, I complained that each of its hundreds of banks were too small... Citibank was the only one that had branches nationwide. By contrast, the UK, Australia, and Japan all had a small number of big banks operating everywhere.

jomiku in reply to Doug Pascover

Was this a joke? To say we should "regulate individuals"? It makes no sense and I give you more credit than that.

But to take the idea as written, if we regulate what a person can borrow, as in Texas, then we obviously regulate lenders. And that works backwards as well: if we had no multi-layered securitization structure, the supply of subprime loans would have been lower and the terms and credit requirements would have been higher. That takes us part of the way, but we can't regulate a person in regards to risk levels versus the bank's capital base or with regard to derivative instruments and tranches of securitized obligations. There are no individuals involved in those.

OneAegis in reply to fundamentalist

No question. Just look at the growth of their profits, size, etc. It's too much concentrated money and power. The financial sector went from a significant portion of total corporate profits to the majority of it in the past few decades. That's a broken system; they're supposed to be efficiently allocating capital and earning a return on their risk, not making massive rents because of their gatekeeper status.

Dhruv

No Macroeconomic textbook or DSGE equations can come to describe the personal loss and humiliation of many, coming from the effects of the downturn.

Dhruv in reply to TCDPhilSec

The observation I was trying to make is there are no models or set of equations that can describe the emotional or human loss which are the consequences of past profligacy and Moral Hazard.

DSGE, the so called standard bearer of Marco, has fallen remarkably short in describing inefficient markets let alone personal loss. Although I must admit the two are distinct. But micro observations of human behaviour have been considerably oversimplified in modelling DSGE.

OneAegis

I had the (mis)fortune of making a career change to the mortgage industry in late 2006 in the Central Valley area of California, which had cities that regularly showed up in the top 5 cities in foreclosures per capita.

I got to witness the beginning of many such stories. People would come in with their financial issues just starting. I'd pull up their paperwork and income, and just boggle over how on earth they were given these loans in the first place. Many of them were placed in loans where even the interest only payment, at the option-ARM teaser rate of 3% or less, was more than 45% of their income. There was no possible way. They had been strung along by other brokers and mortgage reps for a few years, constantly refinancing and using the cash to make up their income gap.

I witnessed far too much abuse in a short time to stick around. Spanish speaking borrowers dealing with minimal interpretation. We found out later on one broker even put in his own account as the destination for the proceeds of a cash-out refi. Those "liar" loans were rampant. However the prospective home buyer 99% of the time wasn't the liar; it was the mortgage broker who would put down whatever income they knew would get the loan approved.

The incentives were completely broken. You could make $10k - $15k per loan. And if you put them in an unsustainable loan, requiring them to refi every 1-2 years? You just guaranteed your income stream.

While there is absolutely responsibility needed on the behalf of the borrower, I still can't believe that there are those who blame it on the individuals involved, somehow thinking that Joe Plumber making $20k annually was able to scam trillion dollar financial institutions.

Doug Pascover in reply to OneAegis

Oops, should have kept reading. Isn't the problem one of gullibility, though? Why would you sign a document you couldn't read in its own language with so much at stake?

I don't think the financial crisis was composed out of greedy individuals or even stupid ones, but a big part of getting the incentives right would be to promote skepticism among borrowers and I'm guessing Stockton has probably grown rich in skeptics.

OneAegis in reply to Doug Pascover

Very true. But where does the Average Joe go to get their information? The news media, books, "experts"? The majority of which were trumpeting the same "Buy, buy buy!" mantra. Wells Fargo was handing out a book for free titled, "The Automatic Millionaire Homeowner." (Out of curiousity I just checked, it's still up on Amazon.) The premise was, by stretching and buying a home, you'll automatically retire rich.

The same tripe was all over the news. Politicians were all talking about the importance of homeownership.

I guess I agree with you, but I can't quite get over my emotional feeling that the lion's share of the blame goes to those who spent huge amounts of money convincing Americans that they could, indeed, afford what they couldn't.

Doug Pascover in reply to OneAegis

It's not unfair, but there are always guys around making a mint giving out bad advice. For every book Wells Fargo published, I bet 1000 sermons were delivered about how God wants you to get rich if you just give Him the chance. There are just too many implicated for a solution without we all need to get just a wee tad smarter. But it's good to know what line of work you're in. Sacramento is one of the places I'm looking for a job. Think you can get me into the Governor's mansion with a 2k/month payment?

OneAegis in reply to Doug Pascover

Well Jerry's got a 1BR loft in Sacramento, could probably get you in there for $2k/month, but it will be a bit crowded.

Actually between the market being in the dump and seeing a lot of shady practices, I only lasted about 5 months on the mortgage side. Fraud and compliance on the other hand, I'm guaranteed to have work until I'm dead. I'm out in the Bay Area now, but I have a family member in Sacramento who is actually looking for work as well, in a similar field. (Non-profit public health/social work, correct?) Good luck, it's not a good time for that field in this state.

Paulshoot in reply to OneAegis

Well said sir. Predatory Liar Loans were the fuel
for the property pyramid/ponzi scams worldwide:
The whole issue of Liar Loans is the Greatest Fraud
in all history. It's the Elephant in the Room:
No one dares to point to it. Especially in the UK --
where Liar Loans were [and still are] endemic -
and they're trying to pretend they weren't/aren't.
They had a terrible, terrible effect on the lives of millions.
Once the scam got going, EVERYONE, including very normal people,
were FORCED to MATCH THE PRICES WHICH WERE INFLATED BY LIAR LOANS.
The result has been catastrophic. Unless and until property
prices match REAL incomes - and come
down CONSIDERABLY - we will be in a state of economic limbo for years and years.

AtlantisKing in reply to OneAegis

OneAegis,

Thanks for your testimony - I thought it was very powerful. I agree that fraud and liar loans were a big component of this crisis. And you're probably right that the incentives were broken.

But those factors alone do not explain everything. For example, the incentives only worked because those institutions did not accumulate the risk they created and were able to throw it "over the fence" to someone else. That destroyed the incentive to do proper due diligence on the loan applications.

Misconceptions about financial innovation played its part. We all thought (including the loan originators) that all that risk was being pulverized through the system through securitization. In hindsight, we've learned that risk is not destroyed; it just accumulates elsewhere.

The political class - so fond of blaming 'greedy' bankers and all - played a huge part pin ressuring for lower interest rates, cheaper credit and lax standards - and passing laws to facilitate all that.

But the biggest contributor to the collapse has to be the borrower. While I share your empathy for these people, we cannot give them a free pass on personal responsibility. Ultimately, you are responsible for your decisions and actions - there is no Santa Claus, no Easter Bunny, no broker who is your friend, no banker giving money away, and no politician who wants what is best for you. Don't open e-mails for hot chicks who say they love you or from unknown people in Nigeria who say they want to share USD 10 million with you. Don't believe that the job you have today (thankfully) will cetainly be there tomorrow to cover your expenses. In a word, be prudent - none of us is excused of that obligation.

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In this blog, our correspondents consider the fluctuations in the world economy and the policies intended to produce more booms than busts. Adam Smith argued that in a free exchange both parties benefit, and this blog's aim is to encourage a free exchange of views on economic matters.

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