THERE is a certain type of sporting conversation, usually begun in a pub after the third pint of beer, that starts with the phrase “who was the greatest…ever?” Such discussions, comparing teams and sportsmen from different eras, have the benefit of being both hypothetical and intractable, making them perfect for filling the long hours until time at the bar.
One variant which keeps cricket fans in the pub for longer than they ought, is “who was the greatest captain the game has seen?” Cricket captains are unlike those in most other sports, because they dictate tactics on the field and are thus crucial to the success of a team. It is the captain who decides, for example, how to rotate the bowlers, where to place the field for each delivery and to what extent the team should attack or defend. So important are they that even when they contribute little to a side with bat or ball they are sometimes still included purely for their tactical nous. Mike Brearley, who skippered England between 1977-1981, never scored a Test century and had a paltry batting average of 22.88. Yet he was such a good captain that many doubt whether England would have secured their famous 1981 Ashes win without him at the helm. (He hadn't actually started the series as captain, but was called in to replace Ian Botham—the team's superstar, but a lousy leader—after it found itself 1-0 down after two Tests.)
But how can one meaningfully compare Mr Brearley to other skippers throughout the ages, such as Andrew Strauss, in charge of today's number one ranked side, England, or Bill Woodfull, captain of the great Australia side of the 1920s and 1930s, or perhaps even that 19th century behemoth, W.G. Grace?
To the possible chagrin of pub pundits everywhere, the question exercised Satyam Mukherjee, a scientist at Northwestern University in Illinois. He thought he could give a definitive answer of cricket's greatest captain by using what he calls a “complex network approach”. In a paper (which is currently under review) he used Google's PageRank algorithm to compare captains' results between 1877-2010. The advantage of Mr Mukherjee's approach is that it doesn't just rank the skippers on the number of games they won. Rather, each captain's head-to-head results are compared against all others in a matrix. In this way the algorithm can measure not just whether they won or lost, but the quality of the win. Hence, a successful captain beating an unsuccessful one does not affect either's score by much. But when that situation is reversed, there are plenty of points at stake.
So who is the most successful captain in Test history? According to Mr Mukherjee, it is Steve Waugh (pictured), captain of Australia between 1999-2004. It is difficult to disagree with his finding. Mr Waugh holds the record for the most consecutive Test wins at 15 (the team itself was unbeaten for 16). Indeed, Australians dominate the top 10 (see table). More surprising is that Clive Lloyd, whose West Indian team of the 1970s and 1980s is generally thought to be at least the equal of Mr Waugh's, only comes in at number six. Sir Viv Richards, who succeeded Mr Lloyd, is an even lowlier 13th, trumped by far less lauded skippers such as 9th-placed M.S. Dhoni and 10th-placed Nasser Hussain (many remember Mr Hussain for being regularly thwacked by Steve Waugh's side, which makes his captaincy record appear blotted, but in fact lost him few points in this ranking).
Mr Mukherjee also used his algorithm to work out the most successful Test playing nation of all time. Although the International Cricket Council, the game's governing body, produces its own ranking of teams, it does not disclose the methodology, and Mr Mukherjee doubts its robustness. Australia tops his list, with South Africa second and England third (for the early parts of their Test histories, teams such as India and the West Indies weren't much cop). He also calculates the best side from each decade.
If all this has spoilt the fun of many a heated debate, then at least cricket fans can still squabble about which was the best individual team from across history. But better do it quick. Mr Mukherjee's next plan is to run his algorithm on teams from each decade. He says he suspects that the West Indies side of the 1980s will trump the recent Australians as the greatest ever. Still, it might just throw up a surprise worth arguing about.



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I was surprised that they have not considered the name of Ganguly
Can the same be applied to find out whose the best ever test & ODI batsman off all time?
Unfortunately One cannot apply the same analysis for batsmen or bowlers in Cricket. Reason being PageRank Algorithm is applicable to competitions involving direct contest - Federer vs Nadal or France vs Spain. In cricket (and also in baseball) batsmen are pitted against the bowlers. However I have used a modified analysis to evaluate the performance of batsmen and bowlers in cricket. You can check these two links
http://arxiv.org/abs/1208.5184
http://arxiv.org/abs/1206.4835
The debate about captains due to the tactics and leadership they must portray is very much like deciding who is the greatest general of all time.
For that reason, I would like to say this analysis is total crap. Take this for perspective:
Langer, Hayden, Ponting, M Waugh, S Waugh, Martyn, Gilcrest, Warne, Lee, Gillespie, McGrath.
This was the roster for Australia when S Waugh lead them to 15 straight games.
The very fact that Ponting is 3rd place, shows you how dominant this team was. (I would say it was the best team of all time, but then again I was not old enough to appreciate the West Indies in the 80s, hell I wasn't born yet when Lloyd became captain.)
Put that against a team like:
Omar, Iqbal, Imran, Ashraful, Bashar, Ahmed, Rafique, Mashud, Mortaza, Biasya, Hossain
This is Bangladesh in 2005. A team that under the leadership of Bashar, rallied for a 5 wicket win in an ODI against Australia in 2005.
I would argue that Bashar was a better captain then Waugh, simply because in every game he captained, Bangladesh was the heavy underdog. He had no talent on his team (his best player had a batting average of a measly 29, compared to the averages of 40s and 50s for their opponents batsman) and yet Bangladesh always surprised me, I saw that game in 2005, and was stunned to see Bangladesh win. I saw them beat India in the 2008 world cup. That takes good leadership.
If Alexander the Greats armies outnumbered his opponents 3-1 in every battle, I doubt anyone would consider him to be one of the greatest commanders of all time. Waugh is like that, sure he lead Australia to victory more then any other captain lead their team, but he had help.
This is a great conversation starter, and so kudos to Satyam. I'm a cricket lover from India, but I do agree with many others that the results are apalling, and incorrect. Here are a sampling of the problems:
1) Comparison across eras (pre-60s which few currently living people have seen, and post 60s) is essentially fundamentally flawed. I have no doubt that great captains existed in the pre-60s who took bold and risky decisions within the context of their playing eras. How on earth can we reduce several of those captains to the impersonal statistical analyses of today built around today's expectations? Imagine someone doing the same analysis 50 years later, and leaving out Alan Border, Mike Brearley and Stephen Fleming -- nobody would protest because they would not have seen the deep influence they had.
2) How on earth is MS Dhoni up there? A good captain is good when he loses as well as when he wins. Just look at MSD's on-field tactics during his recent 8-0 thrashing. He is a poor captain when he loses and quickly loses control.
3) Why are Mike Brearley, Imran Khan, Arjuna Ranatunga, Stephen Fleming and Alan Border (all great captains in my book) not on the list? Many of these played with weak teams which they moulded into ferocious fighting units. That's captaincy, not what little Ricky Ponting has done.
I rest my case,
Barun Mohanty
MS Dhoni has his flaws as a captain certainly, which explains why he comes in only at number 9. However I think it is tough to argue that the captain that brought India the World Cup after 28 years is a poor captain. His cool and calm attitude brings Indian cricket much repute (remember the Ian Bell dismissal incident last year - losing aside, commentators across the world praised Dhoni's sensible decision making and good sportsmanship) and I would even argue that India's impressive win against Sri Lanka in the final was mainly a result of Dhoni's excellent captaincy.
Given that the ICC "does not disclose the methodology, and Mr Mukherjee doubts its robustness", maybe The Economist should have further explained it in the article for those of us who are not excited enough to read this particular Post-Doc's procrastination (copyright PhD Comic). Peter
Captains may be important, but it seems odd to credit the entire victory to the captain alone.
Check this,
Much more objective and precise with its results.
www.impactindexcricket.com
Graeme Smith is one of only two captains in Test history to have declared twice in the same match and lost it. For that alone he can't be no. 2 captain of all time.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/226373.html
I believe one of those declarations was necessitated by a whole day being rained out. He saw no difference in losing the series 0-1 to 0-2 to Australia who had unassailable 1-0 lead going into the 3rd Test.
I would disagree with that analysis.
90 overs left in the game till a draw is declared, you team is 94/3 and leading by 186 runs.
At this point, if you don't declare, your just playing for the draw. What Smith was forced to do was choose to balance between declaring to early and giving Australia and easy target, and declaring to late giving Australia an impossible target forcing them to be defensive.
You have to declare early enough to force Australia to play aggressively, as to late they'll just play it out for the draw.
While I do agree that he probably played it to early, (a run rate of 4.7 was require, I would have tried to play for at least 5), I would have declared in Smiths situation.
Imran Khan - given the limited resources and constant conflict, he united the Pakistani team and led them to world championship in 1992.
Steve Waugh and Ponting is there all coz of McGrath and Warne. See how well Ponting lasted post McGrath and Warne era.It was Mark taylor who set the platform for these guys. Mark Taylor should be #1.
Smith seriously??? He can never handle pressure!! Never came close to removing the choker tag from SA.
You do know he lead South Africa to the nation's first victories in England (after re-admission) and Australia. He is also one of the highest scoring 4th inning batsmen in history and the only to score a century in Edgbaston's 4th innings, chasing down 281 to win the Test and series. Also scored 100s in Perth and Newlands... infact, Graeme Smith's Proteas have only lost one series in the last 6 years.
I remember growing up in Australia in the 1970s and 80s and being dismayed at how easily the West Indies (and many other nations) thrashed us. Even though we got a whuppin', it was still thrilling cricket to watch. The Windies were a truly great team in that era.
I also recall how proud we were when our team remade itself in the early 90s and went on to become the best in the world. Why isn't Mark Taylor on the list? He laid the groundwork for Steve Waugh (criminally under-rated batsman by the way).
It is easy to look back and say "oh Steve Waugh had great players", but also remember how he led that team and changed the game with super-agressive tactics, intensity and "pyscological disintegration" of the opposition to utterly crush some very good teams.
Admitidly some of the top ten look a bit odd and out of place....
I've followed cricket closely since 1953, mainly in England to 1979 and in Australia since then. When I saw the question “who was the greatest captain the game has seen?”, my immediate thought was "Steve Waugh." He had terrific grit and determination and would never give up trying to win whatever the situation. I can't recall, as I can with many captains, occasions when Waugh failed to press hard or change tactics to maintain dominance. Some captains with great players have let things drift along, knowing that lightning would strike eventually; Waugh never did. He wanted to dominate the other team, not just on match-by-match basis, but on a long-term basis which gave Australia an edge going into each game.
In the words of Disraeli "There are lies, damned lies and statistics."
Are we really expected to believe that Nasser Hussain is the greatest ever England Captain?
According to Geoff Boycott - so it must be right - the best captains he played under were Brian Close and Mike Brearley.
Captaincy is about more than just turning up and letting the team do the rest. It's about leadership and tactics - and making the value of the team greater than the sum of it's parts.
In this respect for me one of the greatest England captains is Ray Illingworth. He went to Australia with a collection of individuals - Boycott, Snow, Edrich, D'Oliveira - who were anything but a "team". Yet he made them one, and he won The Ashes.
That's captaincy.
The penetrating insight about statistics can't be found in any of Disraeli's works, but was popularized by Mark Twain (according to Wikipedia).
The quote is in Darrell Huff's book "How to lie with Statistics" - which may not pre-date Mark Twain but certainly pre-dates Wikipedia and was a reference book on my statistics course at university in 1978.
Being an amateur cricketer and a researcher in AI, I can not but express my dismay at such researches. Fun value apart, by now we know that comparisions such as this have just far too many parameters, it aint less harder than predicting monsoon. Also "page ranking" like algorithm is misleading fact. Google's page rank is so successful because there are lively people making those trillion clicks. Google like research could have been to monitor what everyone else says (on FB?) about captains of past decade and decide which is the best captain according to people. The point is: researches like this are quite incomplete and journalistic enthusiasm makes the matter worse.
From an Australian perspective, it's nice to see Aussies up there. However, the results from the model seem pretty dubious. It seems to be calibrated to wins rather than quality of captaincy i.e. getting the best out of the available resources. It wouldn't take much to discover that captains like Benaud, Ian Chappell, and Mark Taylor are widely regarded as being amongst our best. And also that Ricky Ponting is not generally regarded too highly (as a captain), despite his winnning record. His best attribute was that he was smart enough to know that in a great side he had two of our greatest ever bowlers in Warne and McGrath and he used them. Also, Waugh, Border and Greg Chappell were solid but not brilliant.
Outside the Australians, I suspect that the same applies. As someone noted, Fleming is highly regarded but not ranked, while Graeme Smith has never seemed particularly impressive - perhaps Steyn and Kallis could take some credit for his position in the table presented. Similarly, Clive Lloyd never seemed to have to do much other than choose who of Roberts, Holding, Garner, Marshall, etc had to bowl next.
This needs to be refined. To evaluate the captain, results of matches should be taken along with relative strength of the individual players in the teams, not just the captain of the rival team.
This is totally flawed, it just seems to equate good teams with good captains. e.g. Stephen Fleming of New Zealand was probably a much better leader than most of the Top 10 for his optimization of meagre resources. Wauch and Ponting had teams full of superstars, and Waugh especially was hardly a master of tactics on the field.
Excuse my french, but this research is crap! The comment on Richie Benaud is very relevant. Where are the great captains from prior eras, such as Len Hutton & Peter May? Shouldn't we measure the individual performance of each captain as well as "winning"?
Other than kickball I can't decide which one is more like watching paint dry for the total lack of excitement and boredom
An interesting piece of research. I'm struck by the fact that five of the top 10 skippers captained in the last decade (indeed, three are still playing) whereas only Benaud captained in first 94 years of test cricket. That seems an unlikely distribution of success.
I know that since the 70s we've got more test teams, more test matches and (I think) fewer drawn matches (as a proportion of matches played). Captains have some influence on the last of those (although many other factors have contributed to the decline of the draw) but none on the first two.
I'd also argue that the true test of captaincy greatness is adding value to the squad of players which the selectors choose. Most of the top 10 captained teams full of great players. Ponting is the classic example. His success rate as a skipper declined as the likes of Warne, McGrath and Gilchrist retired. Had he become a worse captain? No, any more than Arsene Wenger has become a worse football manager in recent years.
Yes, one of the reasons that the tables are skewed toward recent times is because there are now fewer draws; only wins and losses count in this research, I believe.
In that case the research really is flawed, because a hallmark of a great captain is the ability to marshal his resources and fight for the draw if his team gets behind. There are many more indicators for good captaincy than whether the match was won or lost and who the other captain was. How about wickets falling immediately after a bowling change? With Cricinfo data this should be possible to measure. Matches won after a declaration? Indicators for leadership, like runs scored / wickets taken in a win or a draw; or performances of other key players under different captains?
However, just like politics or economics, the ultimate judgement will inevitably rely on a good dose of subjectivity...