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Syria

Pulling out

Jan 30th 2012, 17:06 by The Economist online

ON SATURDAY January 28th the Arab League suspended its observer mission in Syria due the escalating violence by regime forces. The league's chief, Nabil el-Araby, cited the "continuation of violence and exchange of shelling and shooting". Opposition groups said that the regime's forces killed 98 people on Saturday alone. The uptick in violence came as government forces assaulted suburbs of Damascus that had slipped from their control into that of the Free Syrian Army, a group of defected soldiers and armed civilian volunteers.

The mission was already floundering after the league's six Gulf states withdrew their monitors in protest at Damascus's refusal to implement a plan the government had signed intended to end the crackdown. The violence has continued unabated since the observers arrived on December 26th. President Bashar Assad has failed to withdraw tanks from residential areas or to release political prisoners, believed to number in the thousands. The UN last week said it could no longer keep track of the number of people who have been killed in the unrest. Other groups have documented the names of between 6,000 and 7,000 people who have died since March.

On Tuesday Mr Araby will present a transitional plan, backed by European states, to the UN under which Mr Assad would hand power to one of his vice-presidents and form a unity government before elections at some point in the future. Mr Assad's government has rejected the proposal, but diplomats hope that this rejection and the ongoing violence will force Russia to reconsider its support for Mr Assad. So far it has blocked any action in the UN Security Council against Damascus.

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jouris

Russia has, at best, a very small window of opportunity. They might take this action by the Arab League to abandon Assad. I don't actually think that they will, but they might.

If they don't, they will be regarded by whoever replaces Assad as the ones who not only gave Assad physical support (i.e. guns and ammo), but the ones who prevented the UN from doing anything. Which pretty much guarantees that Russia will lose it's naval bases in Syria.

Those bases are not easily replacable in today's world. Which means that Russia has only one good option. Too bad, both from their perspective (in anything but the most microscopically short term) and from the perspective of the Syriuan people.

Connect The Dots

What is the best Intervention/ Nonintervention Model for Syria:

Libya, Iraq, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, or Bosnia.

Allowing for Lassez Faire may allow a Chronic Civil War like Iraq with casualties of 100,000. Or in the worst case, a Genocide like Rwanda with 1 million dead. Remember the EU allowed genocide to occur in Europe in the 90s in Bosnia with over 100,000 deaths only a stones throw from most European capitals.

Or a chronic low grade guerilla war/insurgency/ terrorism like Sudan, Somalia and Iraq, lasting a decade or generations.

Western countries have severe hesitations in intervening in Muslim Nations.

I think the UN should deploy its own Predator drones. Killing Hitler would have prevented WWII. Sometimes you have to think outside the box.

The UN does not seem to learn despite many opportunities to confront psychopathic, sociopathic and evil leadership. Diplomacy MUST be backstopped by force. That is the failure of the UN System.

Didomyk in reply to Connect The Dots

You wrote: "The UN does not seem to learn despite many opportunities to confront psychopathic, sociopathic and evil leadership. Diplomacy MUST be backstopped by force"

That may be so in broad sense, but each 'psychopathic' case must be assessed on its own merits or demerits. In the case of Syria, the issue is not so much 'intervening in Muslim nations" but intervening against a deliberate and stubborn Russian opposition.

Russia's defiance of Western efforts (via the UN-approved actions) to end Assad's crackdown on protesters is based on two premises: a) that Russia needs to keep a Mid-East presence by propping up, politically and militarily, its last remaining ally in the region;
b) that a UN-approved intervention in Syria would eventually lead to a similar Western-sponsored and UN-approved intervention in Russian domestic affairs.

The Kremlin's attempt to shield Assad's regime from UN sanctions and to continue supplying it with weapons and ammunition has already strained Moscow's relations with Obama administration. At the same time Vladimir Putin enjoys defying the US while campaigning for his new term as president.

Putin's advisers seem to have concluded that Russia has nothing to lose from backing Assad as well as nothing to gain from supporting the opposition.

And, at this stage at least, no one can define the identity and future political orientation of Assad's successor.

Connect The Dots in reply to Didomyk

Didomyk,

I take Russian opposition to Security Council action against tyrants as a given.

They supported the Serbians against the Bosnian Intervention, delayed intervention in Rwanda and Sudan Genocide, deny sanctions and actions against the North Korean Regime, supported Qaadafi until very late, and provide diplomatic cover to the Iranian nuclear program.

The Russians end up selling expensive weapons to the Syrians, Libyans, North Koreans, Serbians, Iranians, and Venezuelans that are principally used against their own people.

The Chinese are only slightly less guilty.

The Security Council roles are so stereotypical as to be highly predictable. Russians work for self interest, and that is weapons sales and stymieing the West. Since the beginning of the UNSC, Russia is not a force for world peace as much as dysfunction.

Let Russia remain isolated. I think the Chinese are more pragmatic, have more economic power and more potential for positive change.

I assume you're proposing assassinating Bashir Assad with a missile fired from a Predator drone?

I don't know how effective that would be. Assad's not Hitler, since he hasn't created a personality cult, nor does he lack people who could reasonably take over for him.

Don't get me wrong, killing Assad's a splendid idea, and he certainly deserves it, but assassination is usually not a panacea in terms of foreign relations.

And considering the UN seems to be obligated to let every bloody-handed dictator they can into the UN, giving them drones would probably be a bad idea. Kick out the autocracies from the UN and then the idea gets better.

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