WRITERS for The World in 2009 are encouraged to stick their neck out and make bold predictions. This our Brussels correspondent did in predicting the death of the European Union's Lisbon treaty, which Irish voters rejected in a referendum last June and which needs ratification by all 27 EU member states to enter into force. As our man bravely wrote:

The Lisbon treaty is dead, at least in its current form, and in 2009 its fans will at last come to terms with that fact. Expect some desperate attempts to get it ratified: there will be more pressure on Ireland to hold a second referendum on Lisbon in 2009, and a deep recession might just scare the Irish to fall into line. More likely, when it becomes clear that a fresh vote would lead to another rejection, several countries will demand that the Irish government find some legal wheeze for ratifying the treaty through parliament, removing the need for another referendum. But for the Irish government, bypassing voters like that would be legally risky. It would also be political suicide.

Yet the Lisbon treaty is showing signs of life again. At the recent European summit the Irish government promised to hold a new referendum, in which (so the treaty's fans hope) the Irish, swayed by various reassurances on key concerns, will this time vote Yes.

Charles Grant, who heads the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, reckons it is "more likely than not that we'll have a Lisbon treaty". If so, he says, the EU will be able to get on with serious issues instead of fretting about its own internal workings.

The Irish will probably vote in September or October. With the Irish economy facing a dreadful year, voters may be in a mood to reject anything the politicians present to them—or they may be worried enough to accept the teaty after all.