NEXT week the news agenda from the western Balkans will be dominated by the elections in Serbia (which will be fully covered on Eastern Approaches). In the meantime this year's Globsec conference in Bratislava, the Slovakian capital, proved a big pull for movers and shakers from the region, and a chance to talk about issues which rarely get an airing in the international press.
Slovakia is one of five European Union countries not to recognise Kosovo as an independent state. That didn't stop Kosovars from travelling to Bratislava in force. The price of their attendance was to be depicted as representatives of Kosovo* rather than Kosovo. That peculiar asterisk is the result of a deal Kosovo struck with Serbia in February in EU-sponsored talks. It means Serbia is not supposed to object to Kosovo's representation in regional organisations. (Incidentally, the Kosovo Foundation for Open Society and the British Council have recently published a report on Kosovo and the EU's five non-recognisers, as well as Serbia and Bosnia, neither of which recognise Kosovo.)
At the conference I spoke to Miroslav Lajcak, who is about to begin his second stint as Slovakia's foreign minister. Asked whether his country, with a newly elected government, might change its position on Kosovo, he said: “our position is given but it is not set in stone. It will certainly be adjusted when the situation on the ground is different.”
Mr Lajcak was at pains to point out that Slovakia had no intention of blocking Kosovo's aspirations towards European integration. Yet whatever Mr Lajcak's personal views may be, I think his government is unlikely to change course soon. Many Slovak politicians continue to view the Kosovo issue through the prism of their country's own Hungarian minority.
Mr Lajcak knows the western Balkans well, having served as the international community's high representative in Bosnia for two years. Just before leaving in 2009 he said, notoriously, that he did not want to be "the rider on a dead horse". He was referring to his own office, which had failed to gain the international backing it needed.
For years the fate of this post, with its important (albeit faded) powers, has been the subject of an almost theological debate between European and American diplomats. Most EU countries want the office shut; the Americans and others have fiercely resisted this. Could Bosnia apply for EU candidacy even if the post still existed? Yes, thinks Mr Lajcak, even though it would be somewhat “strange”, as the high representative can overrule elected politicians.
Another prominent participant at Globsec was Igor Luksic, Montenegro's prime minister. He was there mainly to build support for his aim of getting the EU to agree to open membership negotiations in June.
Mr Luksic also spoke of a "velvet divorce" between the government and Oleg Deripaska, a Russian tycoon who owns a company that bought KAP, a notorious aluminium plant in Podgorica, Montenegro's capital. He suggested that the carcinogen-producing, loss-making plant may have to be closed down, something Montenegrins have previously done everything they could to avoid. Discussing recent protests against his government, Mr Luksic says simply that the authorities are listening to people's concerns about corruption and the economy.
Another big fish in Bratislava was Stefan Füle, the EU's enlargement commissioner. He said that he thought there was a “realistic” chance Bosnia could submit a bid for EU candidacy later this year. The country, he said, had only to show it was making a “credible effort” to abide by the European Court of Human Rights' ruling in the controversial Sejdic-Finci case, which went in favour of two plaintiffs who had been excluded from political office because they did not belong to one of Bosnia's three main ethnic groups (Serb, Croat, Bosniak).
Mr Füle expressed optimism that Montenegro would get a green light for EU accession talks in June. On Macedonia he said the country's destiny lay inside the EU and NATO, and warned that without that prospect there was a danger it would be left "in limbo", during which "bad things" might happen. That is why, he explained, the European Commission had begun a new dialogue with the Macedonian government.
There are small things happening all across the Balkan region, many of which suggest the emergence of broadly positive trends. If countries like Slovakia can play a small role in helping this along, that is all to the good.



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"saying the footnote has to be part of the name on the nameplate, a silly request no one implemented, not even Slovakia"
Silly request or substance of an agreement? If footnote is not written on the nameplate, then where is it written?
On the wall behind?
I am sorry - but Kosovo will berepresented in accordance with 1244 and ICJ Opinion.
No footnote - no participation. As simple as that.
(Of course, they are always welcome to join as part of Serbia delegation. Therefore no footnote necessary).
"EU is patient only until after the Serbian elections, but in June, the hard conditions on normalizing completely relations with Kosovo will dawn on the new government in Belgrade."
Who cares?
"For me the most telling quote was of Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia Lajcak who says that the Slovak position on not recognizing Kosovo "...will certainly be adjusted when the situation on the ground is different”. The normalization expected between Kosovo and Serbia will be one important marker of things "being different on the ground"."
Who cares?
You surely must jest? "Footnote" is a note at the foot of the page. "Nameplate" is a plate with a name. Kosovo and Serbia agreed for the footnote to be used not an entire name to be changed (as Greece pressured Macedonia to do and call itself FYROM).
Everyone BUT Serbia understood it correctly as in over 20 various regional meetings in last few months, Kosovo has been represented as a country without any interlocutor such as UNMIK, and with full legal rights such as signature, etc with Kosovo* on the nameplate and the footnote on the bottom of the documents. Only Serbia thinks otherwise, but I think the real reason is that Serbian politicians are scared to death of photo ops with Kosovar politicians in the middle of the pre-election campaign.
The whole nameplate issue is a farce instigated by Belgrade but it will be shortlived. EU members will soon expect from Serbia to behave accordingly.
"You surely must jest? "Footnote" is a note at the foot of the page. "Nameplate" is a plate with a name. Kosovo and Serbia agreed for the footnote to be used not an entire name to be changed (as Greece pressured Macedonia to do and call itself FYROM)."
At the end of which page, exactly?
Sorry pal - no 'footnotation' no representation...
I don't think you quite understand the items from the Balkans news cycle. Kosovo is being represented as we speak and is a rather happy camper, as it has entered the world of multilateral organizations, got feasibility study as a formal step of EU accession (unimaginable just a year ago). It's Serbia that is boycotting the meetings and not represented and is complaining. Though, as I said, I expect the EU tactics of speaking softly but carrying a big stick of EU conditionality will be successful in shaping the future of Kosovar - Serbian relations. Which will only be neighborly.
No representation? And who is to rule on that? The facilitator guiding the talks sent a letter to regional governments requesting that they adhere to the arrangement arrived at between Kosovo and Serbia, but there is no way that they are bound by an agreement they weren't consulted on. In fact, in a follow-up letter, he stated explicitly that it was up to the meeting organizer to decide such matters. The conference can place an asterisk on the nameplate, for example, and the footnote text in the accompanying documentation, or not even use the asterisk at all. My own preference would be to have an asterisk on every name plate, perhaps with a footnote referring to important dates in the country's history: United States* (* Declaration of Independence 1776, Constitution ratified 1791). Serbia could perhaps list the dates of its four constitutions. Or perhaps there could be a standard "* Footnote" (as a space-saving measure). And if the Serbian representative insists on being allowed to read out the text of Kosovo's footnote, it should, in simple fairness, be required to read all of the others as well.
"No representation? And who is to rule on that?"
Serbia, of course. Kosovo being integral part of it. Should regional bodies wish to have Serbia be represented in the meetings, they should strictly adhere to the agreement.
If they don't want Serbia to be represented, I couldn't care less.
"I don't think you quite understand the items from the Balkans news cycle. "
I don't think you understand international law.
"got feasibility study as a formal step of EU accession (unimaginable just a year ago)."
I am sure those five remaining within EU that do support international law will change their stance overnight and support Kosovo path...
"It's Serbia that is boycotting the meetings and not represented and is complaining."
Serbia is not complaining, just could not care less. You want Serbia to participate in forums - it will be with Kosovo asterisk and spelled out on the name plate. Or even better, as part of Serbia delegation. Up to Kosovo to accept.
Take it or leave it.
"the EU tactics"
Give me a break. The 'EU' creature should get its act together first before it tries to teach anyone outside a lesson.
"I am sure those five remaining within EU that do support international law will change their stance overnight and support Kosovo path..."
They are supporting Kosovo's path already, and are merely waiting for (unfortunately, unspecified) "changes on the ground" to recognize Kosovo's independence. Perhaps the formal end of supervised independence? In any case, Serbia is not getting into the EU with any ability to block Kosovo's entry at some point, meaning at least de facto recognition, so Kosovo merely has to remain cheerful and keep up the good work. If Serbia decides to stay out of the EU (and stay away from regional meetings), the world will probably survive.
"They are supporting Kosovo's path already, and are merely waiting for (unfortunately, unspecified) "changes on the ground" to recognize Kosovo's independence. Perhaps the formal end of supervised independence?"
You only need to convince SC and 2/3 of member states that Kosovo is independent.
"In any case, Serbia is not getting into the EU with any ability to block Kosovo's entry at some point, meaning at least de facto recognition, so Kosovo merely has to remain cheerful and keep up the good work."
Well - EU will have to decide, if it can decide on anything. Does it want Serbia as a member (with Kosovo), or 'Kosovo' without Serbia. How do you think the five will accept 'Kosovo' in it?
I can tell you - the same way as North Cyprus joined EU. But in any case, before we reach that point EU is likely not to exist anymore so any further discussion is futile.
"If Serbia decides to stay out of the EU (and stay away from regional meetings), the world will probably survive."
So will Serbia. For Kosovo, I am not that sure.
Cyprus? How many times do they have to tell you, "no more Cypruses!" -? (Cypri?)
In any case, the south of Kosovo is gone, and the north may be open to persuasion - seen the latest ICO report? http://www.ico-kos.org/data/Image/1ICO_annual_Report_eng.pdf. If the Serbs in the north decide they're willing to live in Kosovo, Belgrade won't have much to argue with. Tadic is already saying "Serbia is Serbians, not territory."
"Cyprus? How many times do they have to tell you, "no more Cypruses!" -? (Cypri?)"
Well - as many times as you want to, but there will be no independent 'Kosovo' joining any international organization.
"In any case, the south of Kosovo is gone, and the north may be open to persuasion "
If the south is gone (which I have no problem with), Republika Srpska (and Serb municipalities of Federation BiH) will also be gone. Oh yes - and Tetovo as well is gone.
"If the Serbs in the north decide they're willing to live in Kosovo, Belgrade won't have much to argue with. Tadic is already saying "Serbia is Serbians, not territory."
Serbs will live in Kosovo, integral part of Serbia as they always had. Tadic is in any case non-issue (and pls use language correctly - Serbs, not 'Serbians').
Kosovo is already a member of IMF and World Bank, two UN organizations of Bretton Woods. 106 UN members voted for Republic of Kosovo (as such and under such name) to become a full-fledged member of IMF. The vote for EBRD membership for Republic of Kosovo was given by several important non-recognizers.
Kosovo's bilateral recognition pace has been steady in the upswing in last 18 months, while it should have been downwards as the pool of the "willing" decreases, which only goes to prove that increasing number of countries feel comfortable with independent Kosovo, as its independence didnt cause the collapse of the world order, as Serbia threatened. Actually opposite is true. As TJ says in this blog: "There are small things happening all across the Balkan region, many of which suggest the emergence of broadly positive trends."
Now Kosovo is becoming a member of few dozen regional organizations. No one cares if Serbia is coming, except several of these organizations are pre-accession instruments, hence Serbia MUST come to these meetings if it wants EU membership. As political mainstream (DS and SNS, SPS, Preokret, URS) all want EU, ergo, Serbia will be forced to behave appropriately and start recognizing reality and smell the coffee. O Prishtina macchiato, which is widely known as best brewed coffee in Balkans.
" As political mainstream (DS and SNS, SPS, Preokret, URS) all want EU, ergo, Serbia will be forced to behave appropriately and start recognizing reality and smell the coffee"
Not really - 22 states will need to recognize reality should they wish Serbia to join. If not, Serbia will in any case be better off with Russian partnership than some vague EU structure.
For sure, Serbia is not going to give up of concrete free trade agreement with Russia that EU can only envy, for some vague EU promises. Add Kosovo into the equation (and NATO air strikes) and the answer is clear.
Serbia, despite agreeing to the footnote deal, boycotted all regional meetings like LGBT rights conference in Budva, RCC Board meeting in Sarajevo, Defense ministers meeting in Skopje, and Visegrad meeting in Slovakia which happened at the same time as Globsec - saying the footnote has to be part of the name on the nameplate, a silly request no one implemented, not even Slovakia. EU is patient only until after the Serbian elections, but in June, the hard conditions on normalizing completely relations with Kosovo will dawn on the new government in Belgrade.
For me the most telling quote was of Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia Lajcak who says that the Slovak position on not recognizing Kosovo "...will certainly be adjusted when the situation on the ground is different”. The normalization expected between Kosovo and Serbia will be one important marker of things "being different on the ground".
Why would the EU's enlargement commissioner possibly think Bosnia is remotely ready to discuss membership? I understand that you need positive influences and an end goal to help along development but this seems like a real disservice to the people of Bosnia. I don't pretend to understand the whole situation but it seems odd that the EU would go along with this discussion while Bosnia struggles so much politically and economically. Bosnia must be improved radically if membership is going to be meaningful. Otherwise there is no point and you will just have a state which cannot function in the EU.
The term "Western Balkans" is a conspiracy by Nato/EU/US to exclude Greece and Bulgaria's mistreatment of their respective Macedonian minorities from any discussion of human standards.
The media, including the Economist, buys into this nomenclature as part of their duty to "manufacture consent" of a credulous public.
No you are just pissed that NATO/EU/US are not helping you secede like they helped Albanians in Serbia.
Shame you really want to be like those Albanians but no one is willing to support you, just shame.
"The price of their attendance was to be depicted as representatives of Kosovo* rather than Kosovo. That peculiar asterisk is the result of a deal Kosovo struck with Serbia in February in EU-sponsored talks. It means Serbia is not supposed to object to Kosovo’s representation in regional organisations."
Not really. * (asterisk) actually means "without prejudgment in stances on status, and is in accordance to UN SC Resolution 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on Kosovo’s Declaration of Independence"
http://vedatxhymshiti.blogspot.com/2012/02/kosovo-footnote-is-thacis-dec...
About that asterisk - in the picture it's not accompanied by the footnote. When name plates at the first few meetings attended by Kosovo and Serbia under the new rules did not show the text, Serbian representatives insisted they were required to read the text of the footnote aloud and make a statement of Serbia's non-recognition of Kosovo's independence, under regulations promulgated by their Foreign Ministry. When the chair did not agree to this, they walked out. Any word on Serbia's performance at the Bratislava meeting?
Doesn't seem like Slovakia is that interested...