EVERYBODY who liked Norman Ornstein and Thomas Mann's piece in the Washington Post on Sunday has something to quibble about, so I'll get mine out of the way now. Messrs Ornstein and Mann write: "While the Democrats may have moved from their 40-yard line to their 25, the Republicans have gone from their 40 to somewhere behind their goal post." It's not entirely clear what time period the authors are talking about, but their observation doesn't work for any time period I can think of. The Democrats, as far as I can see, have moved from their 40-yard-line to midfield, or their opponents' 45. As recently as the Clinton presidency, Democrats actively pushed for gun control, defence budgets under 3% of GDP, banning oil exploration off America's Atlantic and Pacific coasts, a public option or single-payer solution to universal health insurance, and...well, Clinton-era progressive income-tax rates. Today these positions have all been abandoned. And we're talking about positions held under Bill Clinton, a "third way" leader who himself moved Democratic ideology dramatically to the right, the guy responsible for "ending welfare as we know it". Since then, Democrats have moved much further yet to the right, in the fruitless search for a compromise with a Republican Party that sees compromise itself as fundamentally evil. The obvious example is that the Democrats in 2010 literally passed the universal health-insurance reform that had been proposed by the GOP opposition in the Clinton administration, only to find today's GOP vilifying it as a form of Leninist socialist totalitarianism.
That said, I thought the article was pretty solid. Robert Kaiser (h/t Kevin Drum) highlights the wonky political-science aspect of the argument: the GOP has made the deadly (though politically effective) move of adopting the norms of Westminster-style parliamentary discipline within an America-style presidential system, where such norms bring the machinery of government to a grinding halt. "Today's Republicans in Congress behave like a parliamentary party in a British-style parliament, a winner-take-all system. But a parliamentary party—'ideologically polarized, internally unified, vehemently oppositional'—doesn't work in a 'separation-of-powers system that makes it extremely difficult for majorities to work their will.'"
And yet I can't help but feel that there's more going on here than a shift in the GOP's character or strategic doctrine. Ideological or partisan polarisation has been rising for the past decade-plus in democracies all over the world. Westminster systems may in theory be designed to operate smoothly under conditions of polarisation, but in fact over the past two years the canonical Westminster countries—Britain, Canada and Australia—have all found themselves struggling with the extraordinary spectre of hung parliaments. The French presidential elections on Sunday found the extreme left and extreme right sucking away record portions of the vote, with the two major parties left fighting over a shrinking and uncertain centre. America finds it unusual that for over a decade (since the disputed 2000 election), its governing parties have faced a "crisis of legitimacy", with large segments of the opposition refusing to accept their right to govern; but this is the same period in which governments across the world have faced "color revolutions" whose rhetoric and attitudes have also been geared at engendering crises of legitimacy. Something appears to be driving democratic governance towards polarisation, all across the globe. What can be done to reverse the trend?
The Netherlands last week provided an interesting example, though one that may not find wide application. Dutch politics have been torn apart by unheard-of levels of polarisation since the abrupt rise of the late Pim Fortuyn in 2002. Since then, the falcon most emphatically widening the gyre has been the anti-Muslim politician Geert Wilders, who became the key player backing the conservative coalition government over the past year and half. But last week Mr Wilders abruptly pulled out of budget talks and crashed the government. (A fierce eurosceptic, he didn't want to be seen as cutting the budget at the behest of the EU.) The details of the politics are probably too confusing to get into here, but the upshot has been that Mr Wilders has, for the moment, been deeply discredited. Meanwhile, last week, the conservative rump government (sans Mr Wilders) joined forces with the centre-left to put together a deficit-cutting budget programme to submit to the European Commission for approval. Overall, these developments have been billed as a possible reconstitution of the threatened centre of Dutch politics, and a defeat for the forces of polarisation and extremism.
American politics are nothing like Dutch politics, because we don't have ten parties in our legislature. And yet in some ways American politics are very much like Dutch politics: they share themes like anger at ruling political elites, immigrant/native tensions, existential anxiety at the shrinking industrial economic base and widening inequality. And most important, as it turned out after the Dutch centre-right and centre-left cut their deal, it seems that voters—however partisan they may be—really like a compromise. This is something we saw in America as well, last summer after the debt-ceiling impasse, when voters expressed wide relief that the two sides had cut a deal, any deal. For all the ideological convictions they may profess to hold, ultimately, most voters like to see the politicians in Washington cooperating to get things done. This may not always be such a great thing—politicians may receive a bump in the polls from reaching a compromise that is, substantively, awful. But it suggests, at least, that there is a political resource available for politicians who would like to strike deals with each other, and that our march towards partisan gridlock and failure is not entirely irresistible.



Readers' comments
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What this article clearly demonstrates, is that TE want to play by the so called Clinton Rules. How very naughty of you!
Between M.S. and I, one of us is confused about the rules and terminology of American football. Since "one's own" goal line is in fact where the opposing team scores points, the Dems going "from their 40 to their 25" indeed signifies a retreat, no? Granted, the text he criticizes is a block-headed metaphor at best, since the two teams can't be at different places on the field at the same time...
The distance from the opponents goal line represents closeness to opposing ideology.
You think American football is confusing from an european perspective?
Try Cricket from an American perspective!
All I know about Cricket is that the seeker has to catch the golden snitch. That's right, right?
God! am I sick of this argument. It's a self congratulating argument that proceeds from the assumption that the left is the reasonable center. The center is whatever is in the center between the republicans and the democrats, by definition.
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Have you considered that the reason parties are pulling back on their "more government!" impulses is because right now the case for "more government!" is peculiarly bad.
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The other problem is that the status quo gets defined as a constant movement further and further towards more government. The government has constantly grown for the last century, but that can't continue forever. There is a point where that has to stop, and I think we've reached it. When Paul Ryan says that we should keep revenue the same, that is keeping things the same. You cannot keeping things the same as constantly making things worse, that's cheating.
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The reason the position of the parties has shifted is because the situation is shifted. The democrats can't support as much deficit spending, because the deficit is larger. Suggesting some new government program is fine during the 90s when we had a surplus and low debt, now it is insane. Sometimes this country needs to move further to the right, and sometimes it needs to move further to the left. But right now it really really needs to cut spending.
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Keeping the tax burden down keeps the economy ticking, but a prosperous society can afford to redirect money to things like providing health care for people who can't afford it. Problem is, we're a much less prosperous society. There's just no more money for you guys to blow!
It's a self congratulating argument that proceeds from the assumption that the left is the reasonable center. The center is whatever is in the center between the republicans and the democrats, by definition.
I think it's an argument that proceeds from the observation that last decade's Republican positions are now Democratic positions, and last decade's Democratic positions are now unthinkable. Your focus is weirdly ahistorical. Why not pay attention to the movement of the center?
the case for "more government!" is peculiarly bad.
God forbid we ever return to the gulag-ridden economic slump that was the '90s.
When Paul Ryan says that we should keep revenue the same, that is keeping things the same.
When I say we should keep outlays the same, is that keeping things the same?
So wouldn't letting the Bush tax cuts expire be keeping things the same since that was the tax level in the 90's when, as you say, we had a surplus and low debt? Democrats want to go back to the Clinton era when the budget was balanced.
Republicans will become credible, not when they start advocating tax hikes, but when they at least stop advocating tax cuts when there is already a huge deficit.
You can't create a tech boom or end the cold war or reinvent just-in-time supply or pass a new NAFTA by raising tax rates.
When I say we should keep outlays the same, is that keeping things the same?
Deal. If you want to cap government spending to inflation, including social security and health, I'm with you.
The discrediting (if not the death) of neoliberalism after the crisis of 2007, and the search for a new paradigm has caused a dislocation in the political economy that has led to people fleeing to their own corners to protect their bases. The aim will be to stop the extremists from hijacking political systems, whether parliamentary or binary, as they re-orient to more equitable position with a greater acceptance of the role of government. Groups such neo-nazis or other far right can act as a catalyst to reorient the political systems away from them (e.g. Wilders in Netherlands, Golden Dawn in Greece, Brehvic in Norway, UKIP in UK, Tea Party in the US)
Neoliberalism has been "discredited" in many forms over the centuries. It shall rise again!
The Netherlands, a tiny country that might not even exist if the sea-level go up a bit, what in the hell does she got to do with Democracy in America, a continent-sized country, the greatest and the bestest that ever is/was/shall be.
I don't get it.
" The Netherlands, a tiny country that might not even exist if the sea-level go up a bit, what in the hell does she got to do with Democracy in America..."
M.S. lives in the Netherlands, that's what it has got to do with it - besides the fact that the Dutch think the same about their tiny country what we think about our continent-sized one; for reasons of their own...
Its called an "Example" for a reason.
Besides since the US is a nation of immigrants (and the better for it), how would it be surprising if our country occasionally displayed at least some attributes of past homelands ?
ObamaCare is more than just an individual mandate. We welfare libertarians don't mind an individual mandate but we hate ObamaCare. The Heritage plan called for vouchers for very limited health insurance coverage. No dental or birth control. I'm not saying the GOP has been consistent but they never went as far as ObamaCare.
Same deal with taxes. We welfare libertarians don't mind more tax revenue but we hate the Buffett Rule and other dumb Democratic ideas to increase taxes. Reagan's tax increases were agreed to in exchange for spending cuts. When the spending cuts never came, Reagan vetoed the budget. The GOP should be more open to increasing tax revenue but they were never as tax friendly as the Democrats are today.
Actually, this welfare libertarian despises the mandate and the creatures that inflict such indignities on a once-free nation!
Seriously, it's unconstitutional. I'm with you on the second part. I don't like taxes but I dream of a VAT. Oh Lord! I'm incredibly boring, aren't I?
You're starting to sound like an Economist reader.
I think it's unconstitutional but that's a different issue. WW called himself a welfare libertarian and he favored an individual mandate for catastrophic insurance. Some might call it pragmatic libertarianism. The way I look at it, Congress rightly required that all ERs accept patients regardless of ability to pay so it's only fair that everyone be mandated to carry at least ER insurance.
"Same deal with taxes. We welfare libertarians don't mind more tax revenue but we hate the Buffett Rule and other dumb Democratic ideas to increase taxes. Reagan's tax increases were agreed to in exchange for spending cuts. When the spending cuts never came, Reagan vetoed the budget. The GOP should be more open to increasing tax revenue but they were never as tax friendly as the Democrats are today."
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As far as deals the sides would agree to, the Democrats of today are far closer to Reagan than the Republicans. The democrats have proposed multiple proposals with more spending cuts than tax increases that have been rejected by the Republicans. You seem to be agreeing with the article here.
If welfare libertarians had significant sway in today's Republican party it would be a different conversation.
That isn't my reading of it. The Heritage plan called for vouchers for Medicare only. It didn't talk about coverage, presumably leaving that up to the consumer.
For everyone else it called for tax credits and for the high risk, subsidized risk pools at the state level.
It called for the individual mandate of course. I was going to post the link to a copy of the Heritage Foundation plan presentation but the evil economist spam filter wouldn't let me.
Actually their logic on consumer choice is pretty faulty, just as it is with Obamacare. Consumer based healthcare as they both envisage it is doomed because the information and systems that would allow people to make the best choices doesn't exist. That is assuming people make good choices ignoring sales pressures, which we know from past experience isn't the case.
What actually happened during the debt ceiling debates is disputed. Boehner claims he agreed to tax increases in exchange for deeper cuts but that Obama was the one who rejected the plan. We know Senate Republicans were willing to raise taxes.
Anyway, as I said, the GOP has moved right on taxes. But Reagan wasn't the tax lover Republican today's Democrats make him out to be. He lowered net taxes.
I can't find the paper again but the writer, more recently, referred to his plan as a voucher system. Coverage wasn't specific but it was explicitly not comprehensive.
Everyone acknowledges that there's no choice in emergency care. There's no choice but to regulate it in some fashion. Elective care works very well in a free market system as past experience has shown.
What would be a full description of a Economist reader?
Someone who has wet dreams about tax policy. Subscribes to cable TV for the C-SPAN. Wishes there was an office pool for UK elections. Has an Adam Smith desktop wallpaper.
I never understood how this obligation to buy health insurance thing is unconstitutional? its essentially a tax by another name isn't it? I mean the federal government could surely just charge it as a tax, which I presume is consitutional, but they instead did the mandate, presumably so people who have choice over their provider (which is very free-market and possibly a better system than in Europe) As someone whose lived in both Canada and several European countries, the rancor that greets this subject is pretty suprising to me anyways.
It's next to the centerfold.
A tax definitely would have been constitutional. But, there were a few reasons they didn't go tht way:
1. It would have been a tax increase, and no politician was going to sign on for a tax increase, not even Democrats. And, the Democrats, at the beginning, were hoping to attract Republican support, There was no way they would have been able to do so if they had explicitly called it a tax. This way, they were able to say they didn't raise taxes.
2. If they had done it as a tax, the likelyhood was they would have had to do this as a single payer system, unless they were going to tax you and then hand you a voucher back to buy your own private insurance - which is almost more trouble than it is worth just to avoid raising taxes. I can just see it now...the Republicans saying, "The Democrats can't just allow you to keep your money and buy your own insurance, no they have to tax you and then give your money back to you so you can buy it." So, they would have had to have a tax and go single payer, which Obama ruled out before he ran, in 2007. Besides, single payer would never have gotten past Congress. I doubt it ever will.
Is this a variation of the pundit fallacy? Pundits all think they're moderates.
As recently as the Clinton presidency, Democrats favored Don't Ask Don't Tell, the Defense of Marriage Act, free trade, welfare reform, smaller government, financial deregulation, and lower taxes on capital gains. School prayer was still on the table. Even Jimmy Carter, whom Democrats today hold up as the liberal president was the strongest proponent of deregulation and he was pro-life (or what today Democrats call "anti-women").
"The era of big government is over." Remember that? There's a LOT more where that came from. I'll post what Clinton and Carter said about deregulation at the time if you'd like. They sound like Ron Paul.
The GOP has moved right on the individual mandate and taxes. But the Democrats have moved left on plenty.
That's a good point. But I agree with M.S. that there does seem to be something abreast in the rich world that's polarizing politics. It might just be the erosion of the OECD's claim to disproportionate wealth. We love to buy on a global scale but don't particularly like competing that way. Until we all get used to it we've got Occupy and the Tea Party and we're expected to pretend to take them seriously.
Keeping in mind the five Occupy activists and paid organizers (does that ring some bells?) arrested in Ohio for conspiracy to blow up a bridge and planning terrorist acts in Chicago during the NATO summit, I'd certainly take them seriously.
Terrorists busted in the planning stage are pretty far down my list of people to take seriously. But I'll give OWS the benefit of the doubt that somewhere in their numbers is a capable evildoer.
A Dr Who? The benefit of doubt which I'd give to OccupyWhatevers is that the ideology they're driven by leads to terrorist acts. The country's most famous community organizer has a buddy with huge experience in this regard.
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Both had quite a promotion: one to PROTUS, the other to... ehem... educator, no less. I wonder, aren't those five in Ohio the fruit of his educational efforts.
Quite a jump you've made from one conclusion to another, isn't it? I'll agree with you that ideology can drive someone to commit terrorist acts, but I'm pretty sure a basic Google search could produce a variety examples of powerful people with questionable associations.
Anecdotal examples play great in niche media; let's not rely on them here.
What do you call 'anecdotal examples' in the case?
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Bill Ayers is an unrepentant terrorist, he's on record saying that his only regret about Weather Underground times is that they didn't kill enough people to get their message heard.
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And he is an educator of a very special sort - speaks to students all the time on the subject of "teaching and organizing for social justice.”
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Just about a week ago he told students in Boulder, Colorado, that the US should be transformed from Empire (sic!) into a Euro-style state - and emphasized that to achieve this goal wouldn't be easy: /quote/...for England and France and Germany to become non-empires it took the deaths of millions and millions of people/unquote/.
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Mind you, I don't say he called them to kill millions - he is smart enough not to, but he delivers his poison drop by drop.
We need to move a lot more to the left to get to where the founding fathers were when they wrote the Bill of Rights and created a secular republic. Everyone should have freedom of religion, but no one, no group and no church should have the right to impose their dogmas on the public using the power of government.
I am not opposed to proselytizing, as long as it respects the rights of others and is not intrusive. This also includes atheists but they should stop their incessant harassment of the religions of the majority in the interest of mutual toleration.
"Something appears to be driving democratic governance towards polarisation, all across the globe. What can be done to reverse the trend?"
First, find out what's causing it.
I can think of at least three plausible causes. First, abortion (seriously). Whoever controls the White House gets to nominate Supreme Court judges. If (as some claim) the Republicans are absolutely determined that Obama has to be only a one-term president (way beyond the normal desire to win the highest office), this may well be the reason. And whoever controls the Senate gets to confirm the Supreme Court nominees. This leads to incredible trench warfare, each side trying to make sure that the other doesn't gain one inch of ground that could result in one more Senator or one more vote in the Electoral College.
The second plausible cause for the polarization is the decentralization of the media. We went from "the way it is" being determined by the news anchors of the three networks, to a world with Fox News, The Daily Kos, Move On, and Rush Limbaugh. The internet gives anybody with an opinion a chance to build a following. The centrist view of the world lost its place of dominance. Extremist views carry far more weight than they used to.
The first two plausible causes are US-centric. They are unlikely to explain the issue in, say, Holland. The third explanation is more global: The end of the Cold War. Everything is not pressed into a Communism-vs-the-West narrative. People in the West can espouse far-left views without automatically becoming part of "the enemy". Also, the foxhole mentality is gone. It's not "all parties working together to keep from being overrun by the enemy" any more. But if we don't have a common foe to face, we turn on each other.
What can be done to reverse the trend if abortion is the cause is much different than what can be done to reverse the trend if media decentralization is the cause. And if it's the end of the Cold War, what are you going to do to reverse it? Bring back Communism in Russia? Start a new Cold War with China?
Although it does appear that, far at least some Republicans, the Soviet Union is still around, and still America's greatest enemy. Which is really taking living inthe past to a new level, but there you are.
P.S. I have to agree that Roe v Wade can only be viewed as a Pyrrhic victory for liberals. Without it, it would have taken an additional 5-10 years to make abortion legal across most of the country. But it would have avoided the mobilization of the far right, which has hauled the whole country a long ways in a conservative direction. One can argue whether or not that is a bad thing. But it has definitely happened.
Very good post.
I agree wholeheartedly, in particular with regards to the common-enemy rallying cry.
I do think that there are challenges in existence today that make the USSR's military and political might look rather harmless by comparison. Challenges that, should they be recognised as such by a majority of, say, OECD citizens, would (should, actually) light up a massive bonfire under our collective, widening derrières.
Issues such as environmental destruction (including depletion of natural resources, pollution, access to clean water, etc.), the rise of violent political/religious extremism, poverty, cancer, pandemics, obesity, illiteracy, substance abuse, etc. come to mind.
Each and every single one of them, individually, should be enough for voters, of all stripes, to band together and find solutions. Needless to say that addressing *all* of the above issues would require budgets, as well as scientific, technical and human resources that would make the nation-building follies undertaken recently look like little provincial pork barrel exercises. Prospective resources that far exceed the means currently allocated to all these noble causes.
Of course, that would mean recognising that such world-scale issues are actually that, and require matching efforts to tackle them. Good luck with that.
If you mean the Soviet Union exactly, that is as a specific country you are right in that they are wrong.
If you mean the ideology of the Soviet Union the forces of collectivism will always be waiting.
I really think there is a strong point in your ideas of losing the national narrative. The differentiation of media together with Internet has created a much more extreme environment where we no longer has to listen to those who don't agree with us.
I would like to add a few things more though:
1)9/11 and the Middle Eastern wars has worked as a major divider between the right and left.
2) The economic crisis, especially in Europe
3) The effects of the globalization on the lower classes of the rich world. That is one thing I cannot stand with the Economist, that they still lie and said that globalization was in the best interrest of all. To ADAPT was necessery, and still is, but let us not deny that hundred of millions in the west has had their livingstand lowered and their security substantially so, by globalization.
Voters themselves have to change if we're to have less polarized political parties. People need to understand that politicians are fallible and that their policies are based on uncertainties. Romney was heavily criticized for being a moderate. Why? Because he changed his mind often. Yet, a politician who won't change his mind is a politican who can't learn nor admit mistakes.
Polarized politics is a natural consequence of politicians sticking to their guts without heeding to evidence nor sensibility. If Republicans do not at all believe in the value of taxes (to do so would make them seem agreeing to their Democrat opponents) then the logical step is to keep taxes to a bare minimum.
I'd feel better about Romney changing his mind if I thought that it was really because he had learned. Instead, it seems to me to be because he's running for a different office, and he's saying what he thinks those voters want to hear.
I read these posts and I have this dream that the rest of the magazine will start explicitly saying things like, Obamacare was a Republican plan in the early 90's.
Instead, we get, "Mitt Romney's supporters accuse Barack Obama of being a socialist" It's factually true that this has happened yet reporting it this way makes it seem like there is a strong possibility he is actually a socialist, not the center right politician he actually is.
Von Mises accused Milton Freidman of being a socialist. But then Mises was a sociopath. The Economist should do its readers a favor and write "Sociopathic GOP supporters are opposing their own policies where they have been adopted by the Democrats in order to stop the Government and country from working".
Why do you say that Lord Ludwig von Mises was a sociopath?
Do you have any evidence to back this up?
Just that he didn't see the value in social relationships and was a loner who pushed everyone away from him. Whenever putative friends or allies disagreed academically he had a tendency to attack them with some vitriol and personally.
Okay you may be right (though several other famous people were sociopaths by your definition) but you have committed a genetic fallacy. :(
Mr. Obama is no socialist but he's only a center-right politician within a global context, not an American one. America's political center is well to the right of most other, and certainly European, democracies'.
While many progressives view the Democratic health reform bill as a centrist compromise because it wasn't the single payer plan they really wanted, the plan has never enjoyed the support of the American people, much less bipartisan support.
Somehow I doubt that polarization will decrease until the Republicans finally succeed in their quest to become so extreme that they are totally discredited. "Totally discredited" as in, even those who are unhappy with an incumbant Democrat would still be unwilling to vote for a Republican candidate.
They appear to be approaching that point locally (c.f. the Senate contests in Nevada, Delaware, etc. last time around). But they haven't reached that level of folly nationally. They have forced Romney to voice support for those kinds of positions this time. But he is such a poor politician that it is still possible to believe that not only does he not believe the tripe he spouts, but to somehow believe that he wouldn't act on it if elected. So figure another election cycle or two before the implosion becomes undeniable.
Yes, but in an election cycle or two the recently enacted changes to the methods of drawing the boundaries of congressional districts will have had some discernible effects on the composition of the House, which in turn will have - we hope - effects on the emotional/intellectual disposition of major parties. Some seats, previously considered safe, have been successfully challenged in the the primaries in this election cycle, for both the Republicans and the Democrats, in a few states across the country. The next two or three election cycles are going to be very interesting, indeed.
I think that you are wrong because the polarization is caused by the enraged Religious Right who stand firm in their beliefs
The Religious Right are a cause, but not the cause. The question is, can the various factions which are currently wedded together be split apart? I suspect the answer will turn out to be yes. I just don't see the mechanism that will make it happen.
The question before your question is, ought they be split apart?
The problem with the applicability of the Dutch situation to America is precisely that America doesn't have ten parties. Compromise by definition means coming to an agreement with another party. In a system with ten parties, there are many potential negotiating partners, but in the American system, there is only one other side. This is the classic bilateral monopoly situation. By refusing to compromise, a party can deny the other party the PR boost from cooperation, a boost that they cannot get from any other source. This is precisely the problem that is being faced with the current American system. In a system where there are only two parties, it doesn't matter that the entire population hates the government; what matters is simply that they hate you less.
However if people hate both parties enough they will start their own party (possibly with Tea) thus forcing the two major ones to pay attention.
However if people hate both parties enough they will start their own party (possibly with Tea) thus forcing the two major ones to pay attention.