TO LOSE one of China's celebrities-turned-fugitive—to a frantic and successful dash into an American diplomatic residence—may be regarded as a misfortune. To lose two, in the same way, looks like carelessness.

But if it was clear to American diplomats in Chengdu in February that they could not offer asylum to Chongqing's former police chief Wang Lijun, the case of blind human-rights activist Chen Guangcheng is likely to be much more complex.

America's assistant secretary of state for East Asia, Kurt Campbell, arrived in Beijing on Sunday. Still there has been no official confirmation from either the American or the Chinese side that Mr Chen is sheltering at the American embassy, as has been widely reported. Mr Campbell's arrival comes several days ahead of a long-planned visit by Hillary Clinton, America's secretary of state. Mr Chen's case seems likely to become a major issue throughout the course of her visit, as American diplomats and Chinese officials work out how to handle his custody. Mrs Clinton's visit is part of scheduled talks in the bilateral Strategic and Economic Dialogue with China (SED), a process designed to encourage broader engagement between the two sides.

Originally a product of the American Treasury Department, the SED has been accused at times of brushing human-rights issues under the carpet. Now one of China's best-known activists has landed smack on the American mat, in a way that his hosts simply cannot ignore. At a briefing for reporters on Saturday, China's vice foreign minister, Cui Tiankai, said the conference would go ahead as planned, adding “I don't think this issue will occupy much time or focus.” That sounds optimistic. This is as potentially explosive an issue as any that has come between the two sides in a long while.

A rights activist in America with close links to Chen Guangcheng says he is “100% certain” that Chen is “under American protection” in Beijing. Bob Fu, representing China Aid, an NGO based in Texas, said he has spoken with many of the activists who were involved in Mr Cheng's escape from house arrest in rural Shandong province. He says the escape was not deliberately timed to coincide with the visit of Mrs Clinton. “It was a coincidence,” Mr Fu said. “Chen had been planning his escape for months.”

According to Mr Fu, Mr Chen, who had been beaten badly by the men who were charged with guarding him, had spent days on end lying on his bed, in order to lull his minders into believing that he was in frail health. Since nearly every movement of Mr Chen's was monitored with the aid of surveillance cameras, they became used to seeing him bedridden. In this way, Mr Chen was able to trick his guards into believing that he was still asleep when in fact he had slipped into a less-monitored part of his family compound. Mr Fu said Mr Chen escaped last Sunday, April 22nd, but that the scores of local police guarding his home didn't notice his disappearance until three days later—by which time he had reached Beijing. He had been driven the 400 miles north (640km) by at least one accomplice, a fellow activist named He Peirong. Six days later, on April 28th, Mr Fu was talking on the telephone with Ms He when she abruptly said “guobao lai le [state security are here]” and the line went dead. There has been no news of her since.

Mr Fu says that he offered to help Mr Chen leave China, but that Mr Chen insisted he would “stay and resist till the end” in order to continue fighting for the rights of ordinary Chinese people. It is difficult to see how that might be possible. The hardest questions now fall to American diplomats (and their political superiors), who must decide what to do with the man. In February Mr Wang was escorted from the premises of their consulate in Chengdu into the custody of a special contingent of police from Beijing. China and America insist he left of his own will. Mr Wang has not been seen since, even as the consequences of his flight ramify within the Politburo.

The Chen Guangcheng incident is bound to put further strain on China's relationship with America. Many observers are drawing another analogy, not to Wang Lijun but to the case of Fang Lizhi, the Chinese physicist who took refuge in the American embassy after the killings near Tiananmen Square in 1989. Mr Fang, who died this month, was holed up in the embassy, unable to leave China for America, for more than a year.

(Picture credit: AFP)