EVEN as it tries to slow production down, America is still pumping three billion more cubic feet (85m cubic metres) of natural gas a day out of the ground than it can consume. The country has become so awash in the stuff since “fracking” (hydraulic fracturing of gas-bearing shale deposits) began barely five years ago that the price has plummeted from $8 per thousand cubic feet to $2. (A thousand cubic feet of natural gas contains roughly a million BTUs of energy.) Not that long ago, natural gas was a tenth of the price of oil in energy terms; now it is a 50th.
If the natural-gas companies go on producing at the current rate, all the storage reservoirs in America will be full by autumn. With nowhere left to put the stuff, its marginal price will fall to zero. Such a situation is unsustainable.
Extracting natural gas from tightly packed shale deposits costs around $5-6 per thousand cubic feet. Wells have to be sunk thousands of feet underground and then drilled horizontally through the gas-bearing formations for thousands of feet more. A slurry of water, quartz sand and chemical additives has then to be pumped into the well at high pressure, to fracture the shale and open fissures for the trapped gas to escape. And all the waste water has to be pumped back to the surface to be processed and stored, at considerable cost.
At today's spot prices for natural gas, producers are losing money hand over fist. Many could cease to exist as the industry is forced to contract. And consolidate it will. There are so many firms that the top ten producers account for less than half the market between them. The trouble is that fracking is almost too productive for its own good, and there is just too much shale gas out there. Only big companies with deep pockets will survive.
Back in 2000, America had enough accessible natural gas in the ground to provide a little more than 12 years of consumption. But once the country's shale deposits started to be tapped in earnest, reserves leaped to over a century's supply. And because output from existing wells is not tapering off as fast as initially expected, the actual reserves could wind up being double present estimates.
Such a bonanza ought to be a blessing. And one day it will be. But right now finding users to suck up all that excess natural gas is a headache.
With the United States importing more than half its oil (at over $1 billion a day), and transport accounting for two-thirds of the country's oil consumption, logically the biggest single market for natural gas ought to be motorists. If they could be enticed to switch from petrol to compressed natural gas (CNG)—as drivers in Brazil, Iran and Pakistan have done—America would no longer need to depend on foreign oil.
But do not count on it, even though there is much to like about CNG. For one thing, it is the cleanest burning of fossil fuels—producing significantly less carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides and unburned hydrocarbons than petrol. Because it leaves no carbon deposits inside the engine, wear is reduced to a minimum and oil changes are required less often. At the equivalent of typically $2 a gallon, CNG is half the price Americans pay at the pump for petrol. It is also safer. If its pressurised container is ruptured, CNG does not pool on the ground, but disperses into the air. And with twice the ignition temperature of petrol, it is less likely to catch fire.
So, what is holding CNG back? One reason is that converting petrol engines to run on CNG is expensive. Conversion kits that meet Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requirements cost anything from $6,000 to $16,000, depending on the vehicle. For another, the pressurised storage tank leaves little space for luggage in the vehicle's boot.
Only one car designed specifically to run on CNG, the Honda Civic GX, is commercially available in the United States. Compared with its petrol-engined LX sibling, the GX has significantly lower power, has similar fuel economy, and has a sticker price that is $7,000 higher. But it is cheaper to refuel. The GX is also squeaky clean, having the least polluting internal-combustion engine in production anywhere. In California, it has the enviable right—like electric vehicles and certain hybrids—to use the car-pool lanes with only the driver aboard.
CNG cars have other drawbacks that similarly plague electric vehicles—including range anxiety. Refuelling stations are few and far between. At the last count, America had little over 1,000 natural-gas stations compared with 120,000 petrol stations. Honda sells a home-refuelling appliance called Phill, which uses the domestic gas supply to recharge the GX's pressurised tank (equivalent to an eight-gallon petrol tank) in 16 hours, to give a typical range of around 200 miles (320km).
Lorries and buses are a much better proposition. Operating on fixed duty cycles and returning to base at the end of the working day, buses, delivery vans and waste-collection vehicles are ideal candidates for CNG. Indeed, the vast majority of America's fleet of 114,000 CNG vehicles are buses and other municipal vehicles.
With diesel even more expensive than petrol, trucking companies have started converting their long-haul fleets to run on CNG. Cummins, a maker of heavy-duty engines, is doing good business with its new natural-gas engine as lorry owners re-equip their fleets to comply with new EPA regulations, starting in 2014, for lower carbon-dioxide emissions.
But none of that is going to happen overnight. Nor will it come anywhere close to mopping up America's excess supply of natural gas. What will, though, are developments afoot in the process and power-generation industries. In both, the switch to cheap shale gas is underway—and represents nothing less than a renaissance in American manufacturing. A typical case is Dow Chemical, which had planned to build a new petrochemicals plant in the Middle East, but is now also constructing one in America, to take advantage of the low cost of natural gas.
In fact, cheap shale gas is giving American chemical companies a competitive edge over foreign rivals. That is because domestic processors use ethane, a natural-gas liquid derived from shale gas, as a feedstock for various chemical products. Foreign competitors rely on naphtha, a more expensive oil-based feedstock. The American Chemistry Council, a trade association, calls shale gas a “game changer” that is rejuvenating industry and bringing jobs back home.
That is all to the good. But your correspondent is convinced that the one thing that will do more than anything else to revitalise America will be to hasten the on-going switch from coal to natural gas for generating electricity.
Right now it costs twice as much to make electricity from dirty coal as it does from clean natural gas—ie, 12 cents or more per kilowatt-hour versus six cents. Yet, coal still accounts for 45% of power generation, compared with 24% from natural gas (plus 20% from nuclear, 6% from hydro, 4% from renewables and 1% from oil). Retire 30% of today's coal-fired capacity and replace it with shale, and the savings would be enough to peg electricity prices for a decade, or even lower them.
This is no pipe dream. By April 2015, power stations throughout the United States will have to meet stringent new requirements for the amount of mercury they can emit. As a result, some 250 coal-fired plants built in the 1950s and later will have to be retired. Replacing them with clean natural-gas capacity will create demand for billions of cubic feet of shale gas. Even though gas prices will most assuredly rise, the savings for the country over the next 30 years—in environmental as well as economic terms—will be enormous.
Correction: We originally wrote that Dow Chemical will be building the plant in America instead of the Middle East. In fact, Dow plans to build both plants. Sorry.



Readers' comments
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Natural gas is usually 90% or higher Methane and less than 3% ethane. As a transport fuel,CNG is limited to local fleets but liquified natural gas (LNG) is not. Most diesel engine manufacturers in the USA have developed LNG fueled engines for heavy duty long haul trucks. LNG provides for faster refueling and more fuel storage in the same space extending the range. Clean Energy, a supplyer of both CNG and LNG is building LNG fueling stations along major truck routes in the USA.
You write "Not that long ago, natural gas was a tenth of the price of oil in energy terms; now it is a 50th."
Not so. A barrel of oil contains roughly 5.8 million Btu and costs roughly $100; a thousand cubic feet of natural gas contains roughly 1 million Btu and costs roughly $2. So oil is about $17 per million Btu, natural gas about $2 per million Btu. In energy terms, the oil costs about 8 times more than the gas, not 50.
This is true, but historically the price per MMBtu of crude has been less than 2 times the natural gas price.
What this article says is true, yet it ommits to stress what to me is possibly the biggest drawback of using natural gas for cars. A tankload will take you less than half the distance offered by a gasoline tank, and maybe a quarter of the range offered by diesel. So this forces drivers to refuel very frequently, a definite disadvantage. So frequent drivers will eventually tire and value their time spent at the pump vs the fuel savings, and conclude it is not worth their effort, and occasional drivers will not have the incentive to pay for the additional cost of the required equipemt. There´s the rub. This is not an anxiety or a figment of the imagination. It is solid fact.
I can talk from experience, I have a car that runs on natural gas, true that I have less autonomy, about 150km, than when I run in gasoline, but the inconvenience is only noticeable when I drive long distances, having to stop every hour and a half is a pain, but still I do it if I find a pump station, the savings are huge, but I mostly use the car in the city where I am more than happy to stop and refuel a bit more often.
The comments about the price for producing gas and the price that is presently being paid for gas should throw up red flags. The present gas fracing mania is not sustainable. We will continue drilling for shale gas and using it in the future, but not at the price it is now selling for. Shale gas reserves are being over hyped. Costs for fraced wells are high and production is low and production falls very quickly. We are now in a shale gas bubble because too many operators are frantically scrambling for the available leases. This bubble will collapse and if new power plants, cars, industries are built based on an unrealistic price projection for their gas supply, they will be hurt.
Wrong from the start, I'm afraid: "America is still pumping three billion more cubic feet (85m cubic metres) of natural gas a day out of the ground than it can consume." America is, in fact, the world's 4th largest net importer of natural gas, 105 billion cubic metres per year (2010), mostly from Canada.
The key is not the overall cost per mmbtu ($5 - $6 sounds a bit high, probably closer to $4) but the very low incremental cost of production after you have drilled and fracked the well. Many companies also have hedged part of their gas production allowing them to produce at a profit even at very low market prices while other companies chasing profitable "wet" gas, high in NGLs, care little about the price of natural gas itself.
But your central point is accurate, the EPA seems to go out of its way to make difficult any sort of fossil exploitation.
XYZ NYC
Mr. xyz no doubt has a point, but to give a clearer picture one should also consider that USA is fast becoming a big exporter of natural gas to an avid world. True, volumes still are not as significant as imports, yet growing. What counts is the net balance between imports and exports, plus domestic production, to make up global domestic supply. This scenario is by no means unique. Canada for example is simultaneously an exporter of crude oil from the western provinces where production is abundant and an importer for the eastern part. Transportation costs explains what at first sight seems as an anomaly or lack of economic grounds
Why on earth does it cost around $6K to convert from gasoline to natural gas? You can buy kits in Brasil for under $1K which conserve the possibility to switch efortlessly to gasoline or ethanol when extra power is required. Somebody ought to look into this sort of daring day-light robbery, even if thpough may be compounded by hyper-cautious (and self-ointerested?)regulations in the US not required in Brasil, where the policy is working and working very well and economically indeed.
True, in Brazil (or Argentina and India) conversion kits cost a fraction of what they do in the States. The reason is not that consumers are being robbed blind by the manufacturers of the contraptions, but rather because as the article states EPA has substantially higher environmental and safety standards.
5] Honda does not recommend home refueling at this time. Moisture and contaminants in some natural gas supplies in the U.S. can damage the fuel system. If you choose to install a home refueling device, consult with the equipment manufacturer and local natural gas contractor to determine if the fuel quality dispensed into your vehicle can meet industry standards. See your Honda Civic Natural Gas dealer for details.
- Honda no longer offers the Phil at home station.
Jim Hughes
$ 6000 for a conversion Kit is a scam. I have converted my car in India with a conversion kit costing $500. Import the conversion kits from India or Argentina if you cannot make it cheap.
If u dont find a CNG pump - run it on petrol. In new delhi, nobody is opening petrol pumps any more.Everybody is opening CNG coz there is so much demand
This is all insane. It all ends up in the atmosphere and adds CO2. We are already above 390 ppm. Do we want to go to 420 ppm ? Our Kids will inherit a disaster area called earth.
Nature does not allow to produce more artificial CO2 then the ecosystem can absorb without heating the planet. We have to become more efficient and reduce our production of CO2 not increase it by burning more fossil fuels and gas.
Our growth based economic and monetary system is just plain idiotic.
The new shale gas technologies and discoveries may do more than any government program to help end the recession. Like all fossil fuels, God isn't making any more natural gas, but this is a much-needed reprieve from the decline in conventional oil.
What I don't understand is why we keep talking about complicated, expensive, and inefficient CNG-fueled motor vehicles, when we could use our abundant methane and coal to make liquid fuels via variations on the Fischer-Tropsch process. Nothing can beat a combustible liquid in a non-pressurized tank as a fuel for motor vehicles, including airplanes. It's pretty easy to make a reasonable diesel fuel using Fischer-Tropsch. Gasoline is a bit trickier, which is why during WWII, the Germans focused on turbine-powered aircraft late in the war. The world is moving from gasoline to diesel anyway, so this is no problem.
So, what's holding up gas liquefication (or coal gasification if you prefer)? EPA rules? Uncertainty about future fuel and raw materials prices? It seems like someone should at least be dusting off those 70-year-old plans and building a gas+coal pilot plant.
Fischer-Tropsch process have efficiency of 25 - 50% depends on the end-product. Basically it's cheaper and more efficient just burn coal and use electricity. Germany used it because it's wartime, and electric tanks don't really work given the technology.
Yes and no. You're right that the chemical efficiency of the conversion process isn't great. However in a modern chemical plant, there is no such thing as "waste heat", and much of the heat that used to go up the stack in a 1930s Fischer-Tropsche plant could now be reclaimed, for power generation, process heat, space heating, and even fish farming.
More to the point, what will be needed as conventional oil runs out, is transport fuel. Airplanes will not be running on electricity, or even CNG any time soon, and over-the-road trucks probably won't either. Once you start talking about grid-recharged electric vehicles, you're talking another 50% hit in efficiency relative to the generating plant. What Fischer-Tropsche does is give us a much longer supply of combustible liquids for transport fuel, primarily diesel / turbine fuel, after conventional petroleum becomes too expensive.
Thats what plug in hybrids are for, replace oil with coal/gas derived electricity,
I wonder how much money the "correspondent" received from the energy lobby for writing this thinly veiled propaganda piece disguised as a serious article. Nowhere is there even a hint of a reference to the environmental catastrophe that will surely occur if natural gas really were to replace coal and oil, and fracking became a lot more widespread to keep up with demand. Green energy cannot come fast enough to kill this hydrofracking abomination in its crib.
Curious: What is your evidence or logic that hydrofracking is so devastating?
Religious dogma has no need for evidence or logic.
Look to the tar sands in Canada! Do you know the big ugly mess they make up there?
The birds land on big pools of waste water that kills them. But polluting the land was always a cost efficient method for firms making profit without looking to the future.
Perhaps you are thinking about the legal action taken in North Dakota against an oil company there because a large number of ducks (5-10) died in pools of waste water. My friend who hunts waterfowl in ND stated he shoots more birds himself than were killed in that pond. You need to reassess your priorities, Geo. Go after those duck hunters first. The oil companies are a minor problem.
I have never looked at the oil sand pits myself. I have seen open pits used for iron, coal and copper mining. My friend from Edmonton, who did see them, says no. Did they look any different to you?
This environmental catastrophe you speak of if we replace oil/coal with CH4/C2H6 (natural gas)... how does it compare to continued use of oil/coal? A lot worse, huh? Burning CH4 and C2H6 just gives off CO2 and H2O, oil and gas also produce other stuff - oil gives sulfer compounds and NOx, and coal adds heavy metals to the mix. On the "upside" for oil, sulfate aerosols have a cooling effect on the climate (but also produce acid rain).
Sure, renewables would be awesome (and they're slowly coming along) but until they're abundant and cheap, natural gas is much better than other carbon based fuels dug out of the ground.
With regards to surplus gas production; maybe producers should liquify their product and export it to Japan.
The Japanese have shut down their nuclear reactors, right as summer is approaching.
Otherwise, if electric cars become more widely adopted, there ought to be a lift in demand for electicity generating capacity, and hence eventually more demand for natural gas.
Now what specific chemicals are used in "chemical additives" for fracking? Seems no one itemizes them in articles on the subject.
Good article; hit the recommend button.
I seriously can't believe The Economist didn't mention environmental and health impacts associated with Shale Gas extraction. http://www.environmentalhealthproject.org/
Also it would have been nice for the discussion to mention that burning natural gas is still a fossil fuel that will continue contributing to climate change.
Natural gas emits half as much CO2 per unit energy as does coal. Consider it a bridge to the future of solar power, as well as an important adjunct to renewable sources (it's still there when the sun's not shining and the wind's not blowing).
As we learn more about fracking, the regulatory side will catch up and groundwater issues will be minimal. Consolidation will also help; it's the small outfits which cut corners, not the major players.
Keep dreaming. This will never happen. It is impossible to make hydrofracking safe.
More religious dogma
The conversion of $6-16k is the chokepoint then. In Ireland that conversion used to cost about $1500. Surely it ahs ot gone up that mcuch - are unreasonable EPA requirements the issue?
Here in India CNG is the most popular fuel. All Buses are now required to run on CNG. As are most taxis and rickshaws. Being such a plentiful fuel, cleaner, and cheaper then petrol, the US would be wise to start mass production of CNG cars.
WHAT WAS IT?
A generation from now Americans who inherit the mess may finally come to their senses -
"It wasn't the cheap oil or gas - it was the earth's water table,
that we've been playing with... Too late"
Mark Gendala
Melbourne, Australia
www.ssotu.com
Diesel is more expensive than petrol in the USA only because of taxes. Here in Belgium it is cheaper. Government tax policy must be adjusted to reflect the needs and concerns we have for the 21st century. They currently don't.
Diesel is more expensive than petrol in the USA because tax policy isn't distorted in the US in favoring diesel like it is in several European countries. It all depends on weather you believe in the "invisible hand"of free markets or government bureaucrats' wisdom in telling you what's best for you.
Only because of the LACK of taxes, M Hale. The relative costs in Belgium are adjusted by the relative taxes.
Question: Will there soon be similar massive shale gas plays found in other countries? Obviously the shale gas discoveries (subsequent to the new production techniques) have major benefits for the US, but will it turn out that many spots around the world have just as much shale gas available? Or does the US truly have a unique amount of shale gas?
If 10 years from now it turns out that shale gas is just as abundant in many countires, will that reduce America's relative advantages, vis a vis the chemical industry, for instance?
USA has so far the largest shale gas deposits. But China and Argentina´s come next, and they are not that much smaller. Plus there is a pack of other countries with deposits, many of which one would not associate with natural gas at this point in time
"Right now it costs twice as much to make electricity from coal as it does from gas, 12 cents or more per kilowatt-hour versus six cents."
These quoted costs of electricity production are completely wrong for both fuels, casting doubt upon everything else in the article.
Typical costs are 1-2 cents/kwh.
What did you expect from this magazine - estimates better than an order of magnitude?
But the 1 cent only works with written off power plants.
What are the production costs in new plants?
A new NG power plant costs less than $2K/KW. That corresponds to a production of 16,000 kwh/yr. If you write off the plant in 20 years, that cost is $100/16,000 = 0.7 cents/kwh
And you get the fuel for free?
I was referring only to the write-off cost, Ulenspiegel, in response to your question about "new" plants. As I stated above, the total costs, including fuel, run between 1 and 2 cents/kwh.
I have an study of an German industrial think tank and they come to higher costs, therefore, my questions.
My issue with your numbers are:
1) 1 kW produces 6500 - 8000 kWh p.a., not 16000 kWh (a year has only 8400 hours and you have to account for maintanence), therefore, your write off per kWh is much too small.
2) capital costs were in the German study more than 1 cent/kWh for a projected production span of 20 years.
So even with dirt cheap methane and a good efficiency of the turbine the costs were more in the 3-4 cent/kWh range.
My mistake. But a year does have 8766 hrs. A NG plant typically has a 90% capacity factor - sometimes more.
The prices being paid for electricity by power companies here are 3 cents. That includes the profit earned on the power plant - added on to depreciation.
Nevertheless, the number is not 10 cents.
As real competitor for photovoltaic or wind I only see natural gas, not nuclear power when we consider the extrem high costs of new reactors. In most sunny reagons you can alredy produce with PV for < 10 cent per kWh.
The interesting question for me is, whether NG can maintain its advantage of factor 3 when more people convert their car to NG or when larage scale methanol or synthetic fuel production is launched.
I live in such a sunny area, where the capacity factor for solar systems is 20%. A recent subsidized rooftop program here has installed hundreds of systems at a cost of $58K for 6.5 kw(peak) output. The new owners are paying only $90/mo for 15 yrs (or $16K) for the systems which produce 11,000 kwh per yr. That works out to 14 cents/kwh, while paying for only for a fourth of the cost (ignoring government and ratepayer subsidies).
The cost of solar energy is MUCH higher then 10 cents/kwh in this case. It is higher than costs for nuclear energy.
The part of solar energy cost that is ALWAYS ignored (including the one above) is the cost of back-up energy. Solar systems do not provide energy during peak use, and peak demand requires a 100% conventional capability or (God forbid) storage. That cost is never factored into the solar energy cost. Every solar plant ever built is redundant with existing conventional plants. They add the cost of capital to an existing base without adding capacity to meet peak demands.
Your point about the impact of expanded use of NG on price is a valid one, however.